High Orange Juice Prices May Be On The Table For A While Due To Disease And Extreme Weather

MOGI GUACU, Brazil – Prices for orange juice have always been erratic; they rise when frost or a hurricane destroys fruit trees and fall when abundant harvests result in an excess of oranges.

But since the diseases and severe weather decimating orange groves in some of the top-producing nations are not readily fixed, the record-high prices for OJ that the globe is currently experiencing might not last long.

The biggest orange juice producer in the world, Brazil, is expected to have its poorest crop in 36 years due to drought and flooding, according to a prediction by Fundecitrus, a Sao Paulo state citrus growers’ association.

Orange Juice | AP news Image

High Orange Juice Prices May Be On The Table For A While Due To Disease And Extreme Weather

According to Mogi Guacu, Brazil, orange grower Oscar Simonetti, there is more to worry about than rising juice prices. The worry is not having the juice.

In the United States, Hurricane Ian severely devastated an already suffering crop due to an invading insect, resulting in a 62% decline in orange production in Florida’s 2022–2023 season. Spanish orange output was likewise reduced by drought the previous year.

Low supplies have driven up costs. Government statistics from April show that a 12-ounce can of frozen orange juice concentrate in the United States costs an average of $4.27, 42% more than the previous month.

Consumer research firm Nielsen reports that fresh orange juice prices in the UK, where the British Fruit Juice Association reports supplies are at 50-year lows, increased by 25% over the previous year.

Those price hikes are turning off consumers tired of inflation. Rabobank, a Dutch food and agriculture bank, reports that orange juice consumption has decreased from 15% to 25% over the past year in major worldwide markets, including the United States and the European Union.

Jonna Parker, principal for fresh food client insights at market research firm Circana, noted that more and more people are obtaining their morning fruit from smoothies, energy drinks, and other beverages than orange juice.

People think about other options when the price rises, she said.

Before the current price increases, orange juice consumption fell worldwide due to public concern about the quantity of sugar in fruit juices and rivalry with other drinks. If that tendency keeps up, Rabobank said, it should help balance supply and demand and prevent prices from growing much higher. Limited supplies, however, are expected to keep prices high for some time.

Orange juice has completely gone from the shelves in some stores.

An “orange fruit drink” with 35% orange juice replaced orange juice on the Australian McDonald’s menu late last year. The company mentioned short supplies.

Because of limited Brazilian juice supply, Tokyo-based Morinaga Milk Industry Co. plans to cease delivering its Sunkist orange juice by the end of June. Based in Sapporo, northern Japan, Megmilk Snow Brand Co. ceased shipping 1-liter (approximately a quart) and 450-milliliter (15.2-ounce) orange juice packs in April 2023. The company sells the juice under a Dole contract. Sales have yet to start up again.

Orange Juice | AP news Image

High Orange Juice Prices May Be On The Table For A While Due To Disease And Extreme Weather

A few firms are considering substituting other fruits for oranges in their goods. Citing the expense of routine orange juicing, British juice manufacturer Coldpress launched a mandarin juice product in February.

Still others, though, keep their ideas under wraps. Dole, Tropicana, Florida’s Natural, Uncle Matt’s, and Coca-Cola (which produces the Simply and Minute Maid brands) are among the big orange juice producers that either declined to comment or did not answer questions from The Associated Press.

Decades of history are at the heart of the present supply problems. When an Asian citrus psyllid invaded Florida in 2005, it injected bacteria from its saliva into the orange plants there. By damaging its root systems, the bacteria gradually destroys the tree. Once a tree is afflicted, there is no known treatment.

The effect has been devastating. Florida produced 200 million orange boxes in 2004 before the illness known as citrus greening struck the state. It will provide less than 20 million this year.

Though no orange tree is completely resistant to greening, scientists have been working to breed more tolerant trees, according to Michael Rogers, an entomology professor and head of the Citrus Research and Education Center at the University of Florida.

Though it has advanced more slowly there because of its far bigger orange orchards, citrus greening appeared in Brazil around the same time as in Florida. Rogers added that the disease is carried by insects traveling from tree to tree.

The sickness is still advancing. Fundecitrus projects citrus greening on 38% of Brazil’s orange trees by 2023. According to orange farmer Simonetti, greening affects 20% of his output. On afflicted trees, oranges ripen improperly and fall off early, lowering their juice quality, he said.

Production can only sometimes be moved to other places. Citrus psyllids, for instance, do not do well in the climate of California, where oranges are grown. However, Rogers added, California also lacks the rainfall required for juicing oranges; its oranges are often marketed for consumption.

Extreme weather is another problem that affects orange harvests and is getting more frequent as global warming is caused by climate change.

Orange Juice | AP News Image

High Orange Juice Prices May Be On The Table For A While Due To Disease And Extreme Weather

Nine heat waves that tore across Brazil last year caused reduced production and inferior fruit quality. El Niño has had especially dramatic effects this year, causing terrible floods in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and a record drought in the Amazon.

It’s hot during the day. Nighttime brings with it a drop. Simonetti said that this temperature differential is too great for the plant.

Brazil’s 2024–2025 crop is predicted to produce 232 million boxes of oranges, a 24% decrease from the previous year.

Coordinator of Fundecitrus’ crop estimates study Vinícius Trombin commented, “We have never seen a harvest like this.”

Trombin noted that some producers are considering combining oranges and tangerines to manufacture juice to offset the expected lower output. He is dubious, though.

“The consumer wants orange juice made entirely of oranges,” he declared.

Parker of Circana is a little unsure. Blends including other fruits, in her opinion, may help keep prices down and pique customer interest in orange juice.

“The notion of many flavors is a way to stand out and is very popular,” she said. People must be kept interested. Regaining that interest is extremely difficult once it is lost.

SOURCE – (AP)