Former President Trump and Vice President Harris met for the first time as contenders at a TV debate in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, with the BBC claiming Harris won and Republicans calling the encounter a Sham.

ABC News moderators constantly fact check Trump and never once fact checked Harris.

“It was three-on-one. They continued to engage in so-called fact-checking of Donald Trump. They never did that to Kamala Harris,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told reporters.

In a CNN poll of 600 registered voters who saw the debate, 63% believed Harris performed better, while 37% supported Trump. Prior to the debate, the same voters were evenly divided over who they felt would perform better.

However, this does not necessarily convert into votes; only 4% indicated the discussion changed their opinions about who they would vote for. So we’ll have to wait and see how much impact it has on polling figures in the following days.

Endorsement of Robert F Kennedy

Harris received 47% support during her party’s four-day convention in Chicago, which she concluded on August 22 with a speech offering a “new way forward” for all Americans. Her numbers have changed very little since then.

Trump’s average has likewise been pretty stable, at around 44%, with no major boost from the endorsement of Robert F Kennedy, who withdrew his independent candidature on 23 August.

While nationwide polls can provide insight into a candidate’s popularity across the country, they are not always reliable predictors of election outcomes.

That is because the United States utilises an electoral college system to determine its president, so receiving the most votes may be less essential than where they are cast.

There are 50 states in the United States, but because the majority of them almost always vote for the same party, there are only a few where both candidates have a chance to win. Battleground states are the places where elections will be won or lost.

Right now, surveys in the seven battleground states are extremely tight, making it difficult to determine who is truly winning the race. There are fewer state polls than national surveys, so we have less data to work with, and each poll has a margin of error, which means the results could be higher or lower.

Harris and Trump Tied

According to recent polls, there is less than one percentage point separating the two contenders in some states. That includes Pennsylvania, which is important because it has the most electoral votes available, making it easier for the winner to get the 270 votes required.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were all Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his way to capturing the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will likely win the election.

At the present, surveys show that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other both nationally and in battleground states – and when the election is that tight, it’s difficult to forecast winners.

Polls underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling businesses will strive to address this issue in a variety of ways, including how to ensure that their findings reflect the makeup of the voting population.

These changes are tough to make correctly, and pollsters must still make informed predictions about other criteria such as who will really vote on November 5th.

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces an uncertain future after the small party that has helped keep his Liberal minority government in power withdrew its automatic support on Wednesday.

The blow is the latest in a string of political setbacks and errors that have harmed Trudeau’s popularity.

According to recent surveys, his Liberals would be defeated by the official opposition Conservatives in an election scheduled for the end of October 2025.

The withdrawal of the left-leaning New Democratic Party from its deal with the Liberals could result in an election months early.

Jagmeet Singh, the leader of Canada’s fourth-place NDP, announced this week that he will run for prime minister in the next election.

A working agreement with the New Democratic Party has helped the Liberals maintain control of Canada’s Parliament. Now, the party’s head is cancelling the pact and dumping Justin Trudeau, dealing a blow to the struggling prime minister.

Political pressure, a lack of traction for the pact, and Trudeau’s surprise intervention in a union dispute brought an early end to an accord that had maintained the minority Liberal government in power for the previous two and a half years.

The surprise move has prepared Canadians for the potential that the next election could take place sooner than expected, leaving the prime minister with little time to restore his political footing.

“We know that makes the election timing more uncertain, and frankly more likely,” New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh stated this week. “We are ready to fight an election whenever it happens.”

Everyone anticipated the governing accord would fail eventually, but the unexpected breach drove Canada’s political class into a frenzy, seeking to find out what prompted Singh to act so quickly.

Trudeau’s socialist counterpart

Last month, the Liberal administration intervened to quickly resolve a labour dispute that had brought national rail services to a halt, along with a portion of foreign trade.

The decision to interfere left a bad taste in the mouth of Trudeau’s socialist counterpart in Parliament.

Singh chastised the government for putting the union and two rail corporations through binding arbitration, admitting that this was one of the reasons for his departure from the Liberal Party.

Singh’s fourth-place party first signed the arrangement in spring 2022, giving the Liberals automatic backing in Parliament, where Trudeau’s party is outnumbered and could topple if he loses the support of a majority of members of Parliament.

The agreement was set to expire in June 2025, giving Trudeau a timetable for how long he would govern before needing to go to the polls. In exchange, Singh obtained progressive policy victories in social programs, such as prescription medicine coverage for diabetes treatment and contraception, labour rights, and dental care for routine procedures for certain groups, including seniors and children.

These measures have so far failed to benefit either leader politically, while the arrangement has sparked dissatisfaction inside their own parties.

Until this week, the NDP’s fortunes were tied to Trudeau’s sinking ship, which explains Singh’s desire to break free.

According to Leichnitz, the party brain trust felt strongly that the NDP needs to distinguish itself from the Liberals by “pivoting back to issues that are a little bit more favourable for us and, frankly, not being pulled down by Trudeau’s terrible national numbers.”

For the past year, polling aggregator 338Canada has consistently shown Trudeau 20 points behind his main rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, citing problems plaguing incumbent governments around the world: high housing costs, battered health-care systems and unmanageable petrol and grocery bills.

Singh has consistently behind Trudeau and is expected to lose seats.

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasised he does not want an early election and said he will want to work with his former partner just hours after the New Democratic Party (NDP) withdrew from an agreement it had with the current Liberal Party Government.

“I look forward to conversations with Mr. (Jagmeet) Singh about how we’re going to continue to demonstrate that confident countries invest in their citizens, invest in their future, because that’s what we’re doing,” Trudeau said, addressing the media in the town of Rocky Harbour, in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. That declaration came shortly after Jagmeet Singh, who has been in power since March 2022, declared his party was leaving the Supply and Confidence Agreement.

As in previous years, Trudeau continued, “I’ll let others focus on politics, but I will point out that I really hope the NDP stays focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, rather than focusing on politics.”

With Trudeau’s party in the minority in the Commons, the opposition Conservative Party is preparing to call for an early election through the possibility of a no-confidence resolution when the House reconvenes on September 18.

The timing of the motion is still unknown, according to reports from Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, who stated, “At this time, we don’t have a calendar to indicate when we can put forward a motion.”

“After Sellout Singh did this stunt today, he is going to have to vote on whether he keeps Justin Trudeau’s costly Government in power,” he stated, putting further pressure on the NDP.

“I certainly hope that the NDP will stay true to its fundamental values, which is making sure that Canadians get the support they need and keeping away from the austerity, the cuts, and the damage that will be done by Conservatives if they get the chance,” stated Trudeau, expressing optimism that early elections can be avoided.

October 2025 will see Canadian federal elections, but Trudeau’s Liberals only have 154 members of the 338-member House. It had made it through until Wednesday morning thanks to the backing of the 25-member NDP caucus.

Posting a video message on Wednesday, Singh claimed to have “ripped up” the accord and stated that “Canadians are fighting a battle.” A struggle for the middle class’s future. Justin Trudeau has often demonstrated his willingness to give up to corporate greed. People feel let down by the Liberals. From Canadians, they don’t deserve another opportunity.

The news coincided with the Trudeau Government’s severe unpopularity, which has negatively impacted the NDP. The non-profit public polling organisation Angus Reid Institute, or ARI, released a survey indicating that the Conservatives have 43% of the vote, a significant 22% lead over the ruling party.

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