The following information is from an article published by the Associated Press: Rarely has there been such a lucrative opportunity as betting on Donald Trump’s failure.

Despite significant buying activity from Trump supporters and volatile fluctuations that frequently coincide with the candidate’s current polling results, legal proceedings, and public statements on Truth Social, a tenacious group of primarily non-professional Wall Street investors have successfully earned millions of dollars in recent weeks by speculating that the stock price of Trump’s social media company, Truth Social, will continue to decline.

Rooting For Trump To Fail Has Made His Stock Shorters Millions

Many of the interviewed investors, as reported by The Associated Press, claim that their pessimistic investments using “put” options and other trading instruments are motivated not by their personal opinions of the former president (most of whom do not hold a favorable view), but rather by their confidence in the dismal financial performance of a company that earned less money last year than the average Wendy’s hamburger franchise.

“This company is not profitable. … “It is illogical,” stated Elle Stange, an advertising executive from Boise, Idaho, who approximates that she has earned $1,300 by wagering against Trump Media & Technology shares. “He overestimates his abilities as a businessman.” Many of his ventures fail rapidly.

Jeff Cheung, an IT security professional in Seattle, is certain that this will eventually reach a value of zero.

By Friday morning, exactly one month after Trump Media’s IPO caused its stock to soar to $66.22, it had sharply declined to $38.49. According to an investigation by AP using data from research firms FactSet and S3 Partners, investors who use puts and engage in “short selling” have currently accumulated paper profits of at least $200 million. This figure does not consider the fees associated with puts, which can vary from one deal to another.

However, novice traders, who often only risk a few thousand dollars each, believe that the stock’s volatility makes it premature to claim success. Currently, they are capitalizing on their investments, allowing other bets to remain active, and discreetly observing the most recent fluctuations in stock prices in various locations such as their office cubicle, kitchen table, or even while using the toilet.

Other alarming occurrences have occurred, such as last week, when the stock ticker for the former president, DJT, suddenly increased by around 40% within a span of two days.

“I am uncertain about the future movement of the stock,” states Richard Persaud, a day trader from Schenectady, N.Y., as he checks his iPhone during the sudden increase in stock prices. “The current valuation is excessively inflated.”

Those who spoke with the AP perceived it as an additional political advantage to be aware that their bets resulted in a 50% decline in the value of Trump’s 65% investment. If any of their forecasts prove accurate, they may eventually reduce it to zero, rendering it difficult for him to utilize it to pay his substantial legal expenses or fund his Republican presidential campaign.

They still have a considerable distance to cover. The value of Trump’s interest remains at $4 billion.

Typically, investors anticipating a decline in a stock’s value, particularly a bold group of hedge fund traders known as “short sellers,” will conduct extensive research. They will thoroughly examine financial accounts, acquire specialized knowledge in a particular business, engage in discussions with competitors, and may even seek assistance from “forensic accountants” to uncover concealed vulnerabilities in financial records.

There is no requirement for Trump Media’s case. The corporation’s comprehensive 100-page financial report, which is situated in Sarasota, Florida, contains all the necessary information. The company incurred significant losses of $58 million in the previous year despite generating only $4 million in income from advertising and other sources.

According to the auditor’s assessment, the losses incurred by Trump Media are significant and cast doubt on its capacity to continue operating.

Is this a dream scenario for a short seller? Or is it a terrifying dream?

Manny Marotta, an inexperienced trader, has two computer screens at his house. One screen is used for business, while the other displays the movements of DJT stock, allowing him to assess his gains or losses.

Rooting For Trump To Fail Has Made His Stock Shorters Millions

The situation appeared unfavorable early this week.

The legal writer from suburban Cleveland had earned a profit of approximately $4,000 on the purchase of “put” options made in the previous weeks. However, the television display that morning depicted investors, likely affluent individuals, purchasing substantial quantities of DJT shares, causing the stock to rise once more.

“The value of my options is decreasing with each passing minute,” remarks Marotta, further stating that DJT is being manipulated. “It’s absurd.”

Anticipating a decrease in stock value is particularly agonizing for “short sellers,” who incur a fee to borrow shares from other individuals. The concept is to promptly sell the items based on intuition and thereafter repurchase the same quantity at a significantly lower price prior to returning them to the lender. Short sellers are able to keep the profit they make from the difference after deducting a small fee.

In the instance of DJT, the charge is far from being modest.

At one point early this month, the annual cost reached 565%, which implies that short sellers would have only two months before any potential profits would be completely offset by fees, even if the company became worthless. According to data from Boston University’s Karl Diether and Wharton’s Itamar Drechsler, who have researched short selling over the past twenty years, just three other equities in recent memory have surpassed this exceptionally high rate.

If there is a significant increase in purchasing by Trump supporters who view it as a means of endorsing their candidate, the potential losses might rapidly escalate.

“It is alarming,” states Drechsler, who compares purchasers of Trump’s stock to steadfast sports enthusiasts. “It embodies all the characteristics that one would typically hope the stock market does not possess.”

According to Shannon Devine, a spokesperson for Trump Media, the company now possesses a substantial amount of $200 million in cash and has no outstanding debts. Devine also criticized the Associated Press (AP) for allegedly favoring those who openly oppose Donald Trump.

Seattle trader Cheung views DJT’s unusual traits as a motive to place a bet against the company rather than avoiding it. Once the lock-up period expires, the ex-president is expected to sell his shares, causing a significant decline in the market and price decline. Furthermore, suppose he chooses not to do so. In that case, other individuals with insider information whose lock-up periods are ending will be apprehensive that he would take action, prompting them to swiftly take advantage of the opportunity to sell at a favorable price before it declines.

Rooting For Trump To Fail Has Made His Stock Shorters Millions

“The individual who sells out first will make the most profit,” Cheung asserts. “All individuals will engage in selling.”

However, he is taking measures to mitigate any financial losses by hedging some of his “put” wagers with the acquisition of “calls.” The latter are likewise financial instruments derived from an underlying asset, but they have an inverse relationship with the stock price, resulting in profits when the stock price increases. Cheung anticipates that regardless of whether the puts or the calls generate profits, he will earn sufficient returns from one to compensate for the loss incurred by the other.

If this appears excessively intricate, a more straightforward approach exists to generate profits by placing bets against Trump.

Offshore betting firms, which have designated President Joe Biden as the frontrunner for the 2024 election, are accepting 2024 election wagers.

SOURCE – (AP)