Kamala Harris appears to be more appealing to voters of colour and younger voters than Joe Biden was before dropping out of the presidential run. Harris has the potential to acquire greater support from these groups in her upcoming election against Donald Trump, as seen by 2020 outcomes.

Check out our freshly published CNN/SSRS poll. Harris has a 78% to 15% edge over Trump among black voters. In CNN polling data from April and June, Biden led by a narrower 70% to 23% among these same voters (the poll interviewed the same respondents again).

This is also true for Hispanic voters, albeit to a lesser extent. Harris has 47% to Trump’s 45%, compared to 50% for Trump and 41% for Biden among the same respondents in April and June.

Voters under the age of 35 show a similar shift. Kamala Harris currently has 47% to Trump’s 43%. In April and June, these same voters supported Trump 49% to 42% over Biden.

In some ways, none of these changes are very shocking. Biden had performed the lowest for a Democrat this century among all of these normally Democratic-leaning populations. In fact, his showing among Hispanic and Black voters was the lowest by a Democrat in more than 50 years.

Kamala Harris probably had no choice but to align with these voting blocs.

Despite the improvement, Harris’ results should leave a lot to be desired. In the final 2020 surveys, she scored at least 5 points lower than Biden among the same groups.

By the end of the 2020 campaign, Biden had an 84% to 9% lead over Trump among Black voters. Even more noteworthy is Biden’s 58%-32% lead among Hispanic voters.

Finally, even though Harris has become a meme favourite with young voters, Biden’s 60% to 31% lead over Trump by the end of the 2020 campaign is significantly larger than Harris’ current position.

(It’s worth noting that polling at this time in the 2020 campaign was similar to polling in the end.)

This may appear to be bad news for the Harris campaign, and it certainly is. Harris is unlikely to defeat the former president unless his performance in these areas improves.

The good news for Kamala Harris is that she’s gaining progress with this group in comparison to Biden’s performance earlier this year.

As Harris continues to establish herself outside of her role as Biden’s vice president, there is a good chance she will build out her own political identity, which may appeal to voters of colour and young people.

The fact that Harris outperforms Biden among voters of colour gives her the ability to open up more avenues in the Electoral College.

Biden’s route to 270 electoral votes seems restricted. He would need to dominate the northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. His polling numbers in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina were low.

If Biden had won the northern battleground states and the other Democratic-leaning states (excluding the aforementioned Sun Belt states), he would have received the 270 electoral votes required to win.

Biden underperformed in Sun Belt states because of their high proportion of Black and Hispanic voters. Kamala Harris may be able to reopen the door to new electoral paths if he performs better with those demographics.

If Kamala Harris wins all four Sun Belt battlegrounds indicated above, she will not need to carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.

Perhaps more plausible, Kamala Harris may reach 270 electoral votes by winning a combination of northern battlegrounds and Sun Belt swing states.

The bottom line is that the latest CNN poll gives the Kamala Harris campaign some hope. It’s not that Trump isn’t popular, or that Harris won’t have a difficult campaign.

Rather, Kamala Harris now has a number of avenues to success, whereas Biden’s options appeared to be narrowing rapidly.

Source: CNN

The new head of the Army has stated that Britain must be prepared to fight a war within three years.

Gen Sir Roland Walker has issued a warning about a variety of risks in what he calls a “increasingly volatile” environment.

However, he stated that war was not inevitable and that the Army had “just enough time” to prepare to prevent conflict.

He stated that the Army’s fighting capacity would be doubled by 2027 and tripled by the end of the decade.

Gen Walker warned that the Britain was under threat from a “axis of upheaval” in his first speech as Prime Minister on Tuesday.

Among the primary concerns confronting the Britain in the next years, as noted by the general in a briefing, is an enraged Russia, which may seek vengeance on the West for helping Ukraine, regardless of who wins the war.

He stated: “It doesn’t matter how it finishes. I believe Russia will emerge from it weaker objectively – or completely – but still very, very dangerous and seeking some form of retaliation for what we have done to assist Ukraine.”

Britain’s Government Defence Review and Military Challenges

He also warned that China was determined to retake Taiwan, and Iran was likely to seek nuclear weapons.

He stated that the threats they posed may become particularly acute in the next three years, and that these countries had formed a “mutual transactional relationship” since the war in Ukraine, sharing weaponry and technology.

However, he stated that the path to conflict was not “inexorable” if the UK re-established credible land troops to assist its deterrent strategy for avoiding war.

In his speech, he described his force of slightly over 70,000 regular troops as a “medium-sized army” and made no direct call for additional resources or men.

However, he pushed the British Army to adapt swiftly, focussing on technology such as artificial intelligence and weaponry rather than numbers.

His ultimate goal is for the Army to be capable of destroying an opponent three times its size.

This would entail firing quicker and farther, he said, aided by lessons learnt from the Ukraine war.

The general’s speech at the Royal United Services Institute land warfare conference comes only one week after the government began a “root and branch” defence review to “take a fresh look” at the challenges facing the armed services.

Defence Secretary John Healey launched the assessment, describing the existing status of the armed forces as “hollowed-out” and stating that “procurement waste and neglected morale cannot continue”.

According to the most recent Ministry of Defence (MoD) numbers from April 2024, the Britain’s regular Army forces total 75,325 troops (excluding Gurkhas and volunteers).

That figure has been declining in recent years, as recruiting has failed to match retention. The previous Conservative administration lowered the planned headcount from 82,000 to 72,500 by 2025.

Members of the NATO military alliance have agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence by 2024, but several countries are unlikely to fulfil this goal.

The Britain presently spends 2.3% of its GDP on defence. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has previously stated that the defence review will include a “roadmap” for increasing this to 2.5%, however he has yet to provide a date for this promise.

Source: BBC

PARIS — Katie Ledecky is looking for clean Olympic races. On Wednesday, Hope had pretty much reached her limit.

The American swimmer hopes to add to her six gold medals as she competes in the 400, 800, and 1,500 meters at the Paris Games. Her program starts with the heavy 400 on Saturday, featuring Ariarne Titmus and Summer McIntosh.

Katie Ledecky Hopes For Clean Races At Paris Olympics In The Aftermath Of The Chinese Doping Scandal

The 27-year-old Katie is competing in her fourth Summer Olympics, but the first since a doping scandal involving almost two dozen Chinese swimmers who tested positive for a banned chemical before the Tokyo Games — yet were permitted to compete with no consequences. The controversy has raised serious worries regarding the effectiveness of anti-doping initiatives.

“I hope everyone here is going to be competing clean this week,” Ledecky claimed. “But what truly counts is, were they training cleanly? Hopefully this has been the case. Hopefully, there has been worldwide testing.”

The International Olympic Committee has expressed concern over the ongoing US investigation into possible doping by Chinese swimmers. While awarding the 2034 Winter Olympics to Salt Lake City on Wednesday, the IOC urged Utah officials to do whatever they could to stop the FBI investigation.

“I think everyone’s heard what the athletes think,” Katie added. “They seek transparency. They want more answers to the remaining questions. At this point, we are here to race. We are going to race whoever is in the lane next to us.

“We are not paid to conduct the tests, so we trust those who follow their regulations. That applies both today and in the future.

 

Katie Ledecky Hopes For Clean Races At Paris Olympics In The Aftermath Of The Chinese Doping Scandal

SOURCE | AP