Talks For Gaza Ceasefire At A Standstill, No Deal Likely By Ramadan

According to people involved with the negotiations, a ceasefire agreement in Gaza that would liberate Israeli detainees and mark the first lull in the conflict in more than three months is unlikely to be reached before the start of Ramadan, as the Biden administration had hoped.

Negotiators had planned to reach a draft deal this week following days of sessions in Cairo, “but it won’t happen,” according to one diplomat familiar with the discussions. The diplomat described the last few days of talks as “very hectic.”

Two American officials acknowledged that Israel and Hamas’ chances of reaching an agreement on a temporary truce by the start of the Muslim holy month early next week are poor.

“Hope is fading,” a US official stated.

Talks For Gaza Ceasefire At A Standstill, No Deal Likely By Ramadan

A failure to reach an agreement in the coming days would follow weeks of US President Joe Biden and administration officials stating that an agreement must be in place by Ramadan to avoid escalation of the five-month conflict. He cautioned on Tuesday that without a ceasefire, the region may become “very, very dangerous.”

Israel has also warned that if the Israeli captives detained in Gaza do not return home by Ramadan, it will launch a military attack into Rafah, southern Gaza, where over 1.5 million Palestinians are attempting to flee the violence.

Representatives from Hamas, Egypt, Qatar, and the United States met in Cairo this week for fresh discussions, but Israel declined to send a delegation because Hamas has failed to produce a list of hostages who are living and dead, as Israel has recently demanded.

The Biden administration argues that Israel has already agreed to the general terms of a six-week truce, but Hamas refuses.

A Hamas team left Cairo on Thursday following days of talks that yielded no apparent progress in achieving a ceasefire in exchange for hostage releases. According to Egypt’s Al Qahera news, the group has left to consult on the recommendations, and negotiations will resume next week.

“It’s in the hands of Hamas right now,” Biden told reporters as he boarded Air Force One Tuesday. He had expressed hope last week that a ceasefire could be in place by this past Monday, which he later recognized was improbable.

The administration and Hamas agree on one thing: they want a temporary, six-week truce to turn into a permanent ceasefire with no resumption of combat. Biden officials have stated that they believe the halt could lead to a more lasting peace, while Israel has stated that they intend to continue operations to dismantle Hamas, notably in Rafah.

The diplomat cautioned that hope is still possible for a first phase to begin soon, stating that an agreement may be reached in the first week or two of Ramadan.

However, the terrible episode last week in Gaza City, in which more than 100 Palestinians were killed when an aid convoy was surrounded and Israeli forces opened fire, “took us back 10 steps,” according to the diplomat. Hamas subsequently provided mediators with a response to a negotiated framework that “no one is happy about.”

If a deal is successful, it is likely to have several phases. During the first stage, when the violence is likely to stop for at least six weeks, around 40 Israeli-old, female, sick, and injured prisoners will be released. Concurrently, Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian inmates from Israeli prisons.

According to CNN sources, Hamas had relaxed some of its more rigorous demands, but following last week’s “Flour Massacre,” the group pressed for further assurances. According to the diplomat, the Israeli force would pull back from Gazan cities in the first phase and then completely withdraw from the enclave in the second.

Talks For Gaza Ceasefire At A Standstill, No Deal Likely By Ramadan

Not only do Palestinians from northern Gaza need to be able to return to what remains of their homes, Hamas has said in the discussions, but they must do so without passing through IDF checkpoints. According to the diplomat, Hamas has requested specific machinery for moving rubble, as well as field hospitals and clinics.

Hamas claimed its delegation left Cairo on Thursday “to consult with the movement’s leadership, as negotiations and efforts continue to stop the aggression, return the displaced, and bring relief aid to our Palestinian people,” according to a statement.

On Wednesday, Hamas claimed that it had “shown flexibility” while Israel continued to “evade the obligations of the agreement” under consideration.

“We have affirmed our conditions for a ceasefire: complete [IDF] withdrawal from the sector, the return of displaced persons to the areas they left, especially in the north, and the provision of sufficient aid, relief, and reconstruction,” Hamas senior leader Osama Hamdan told a news conference in Beirut on Tuesday.

Ramadan, a month of fasting and piety for Muslims, is a “period in which you have calm and you’re able to do the essential humanitarian work,” according to a senior administration official speaking to reporters over the weekend.

According to the United Nations, around one-quarter of Gaza’s population is on the verge of hunger. The Biden administration has stepped up its criticism of Israel’s refusal to open more border crossings to let aid into Gaza, particularly to meet needs in the north.

“There are no excuses,” wrote Biden on X.

Even in the absence of a truce, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on Tuesday that it is crucial to “dramatically increase the humanitarian assistance that is reaching people inside of Gaza” because the situation with children, women, and adults caught in the crossfire that Hamas has created inside Gaza is untenable and unsustainable.

Blinken made the remarks before a meeting with Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani, a key actor in the ceasefire negotiations. According to a person acquainted with the meeting, Blinken recognized that the pause and hostage arrangement are unlikely to occur before Ramadan begins.

According to the same person, CIA Director Bill Burns, who has been driving the administration’s efforts in the negotiations, met with Thani for an extended period during his visit to Washington.

Talks For Gaza Ceasefire At A Standstill, No Deal Likely By Ramadan

According to a US official and another person familiar with the trip, Bill Burns has returned to the Middle East.

According to sources, Burns visited Egypt on Wednesday before heading to Qatar on Thursday. According to a US official, Burns is not anticipated to visit Israel during this trip, nor is a “quad” format meeting with Egyptian and Israeli intelligence chiefs, as well as the Qatari Prime Minister, planned, as it was in Paris two weeks ago.

“We continue to believe that the obstacles are not insurmountable and that a deal can be reached,” State Department spokesman Matt Miller said Wednesday when asked about the lack of progress. “The pact benefits Israel. It is in the interests of the Palestinian people. And it is in the best interests of the entire area, so we will continue to fight for one.”

SOURCE – (CNN)