Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has lost a key parliamentary seat in a special election in Montreal, putting fresh pressure on the Canadian leader to resign.

The tight loss in Montreal’s federal electoral district of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun marks Trudeau’s minority Liberal government’s second setback in three months. With all ballots counted, Liberal candidate Laura Palestini finished second to Bloc Quebecois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé.

According to one poll tracker, Trudeau’s approval rating has dropped from 63% when he first took office to 28% in June of this year. The Liberals are likely to lose the upcoming election to the Conservatives, Canada’s official opposition party.

Justin Trudeau has received calls to resign as party leader, including from within his own party, but refuses to step down. A move that could end the Liberal Party in Canada. Trudeau said he intends to continue on and lead the party into the next election, which is slated for October 2025.

Former Liberal minister David Lametti, who had held the seat since 2015, resigned in January, prompting the Montreal by-election.

On Tuesday, Trudeau stated that there were “all sorts of reflections to take” on what went wrong for the Liberals in the formerly safe seat. He stated that he and his staff would continue to focus on working for Canadians.

Liberals grapple with stunning Toronto byelection loss – CBC Image

In June, Trudeau’s Liberals lost a Toronto federal seat they had held for 30 years to the opposition Conservative Party, signalling danger for the party, which has been in power since 2015.

The election might possibly be called sooner, after the NDP withdrew from an arrangement with the minority Liberals earlier this month, which had enabled them retain power.

Also on Monday, the progressive NDP narrowly retained a seat in a byelection in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

The by-election in Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona riding, or constituency, was held following the departure of long-time NDP member of parliament Daniel Blaikie in March.

The NDP retained the seat, a bastion for their party, with 48% of the vote.

The Conservatives finished second with 44% of the vote.

While the Liberals were not anticipated to win the Winnipeg constituency, there were some signs of trouble: their candidate received 5% of the vote, compared to 15% in the previous federal election.

In recent years, Canadian voters have shown growing dissatisfaction with the government over topics such as rising prices, a home affordability crisis, healthcare, and immigration.

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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris met for the first time as contenders at a TV debate in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, with the BBC claiming Harris won and Republicans calling the encounter a Sham.

ABC News moderators constantly fact check Trump and never once fact checked Harris.

“It was three-on-one. They continued to engage in so-called fact-checking of Donald Trump. They never did that to Kamala Harris,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told reporters.

In a CNN poll of 600 registered voters who saw the debate, 63% believed Harris performed better, while 37% supported Trump. Prior to the debate, the same voters were evenly divided over who they felt would perform better.

However, this does not necessarily convert into votes; only 4% indicated the discussion changed their opinions about who they would vote for. So we’ll have to wait and see how much impact it has on polling figures in the following days.

Endorsement of Robert F Kennedy

Harris received 47% support during her party’s four-day convention in Chicago, which she concluded on August 22 with a speech offering a “new way forward” for all Americans. Her numbers have changed very little since then.

Trump’s average has likewise been pretty stable, at around 44%, with no major boost from the endorsement of Robert F Kennedy, who withdrew his independent candidature on 23 August.

While nationwide polls can provide insight into a candidate’s popularity across the country, they are not always reliable predictors of election outcomes.

That is because the United States utilises an electoral college system to determine its president, so receiving the most votes may be less essential than where they are cast.

There are 50 states in the United States, but because the majority of them almost always vote for the same party, there are only a few where both candidates have a chance to win. Battleground states are the places where elections will be won or lost.

Right now, surveys in the seven battleground states are extremely tight, making it difficult to determine who is truly winning the race. There are fewer state polls than national surveys, so we have less data to work with, and each poll has a margin of error, which means the results could be higher or lower.

Harris and Trump Tied

According to recent polls, there is less than one percentage point separating the two contenders in some states. That includes Pennsylvania, which is important because it has the most electoral votes available, making it easier for the winner to get the 270 votes required.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were all Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his way to capturing the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will likely win the election.

At the present, surveys show that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other both nationally and in battleground states – and when the election is that tight, it’s difficult to forecast winners.

Polls underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling businesses will strive to address this issue in a variety of ways, including how to ensure that their findings reflect the makeup of the voting population.

These changes are tough to make correctly, and pollsters must still make informed predictions about other criteria such as who will really vote on November 5th.

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces an uncertain future after the small party that has helped keep his Liberal minority government in power withdrew its automatic support on Wednesday.

The blow is the latest in a string of political setbacks and errors that have harmed Trudeau’s popularity.

According to recent surveys, his Liberals would be defeated by the official opposition Conservatives in an election scheduled for the end of October 2025.

The withdrawal of the left-leaning New Democratic Party from its deal with the Liberals could result in an election months early.

Jagmeet Singh, the leader of Canada’s fourth-place NDP, announced this week that he will run for prime minister in the next election.

A working agreement with the New Democratic Party has helped the Liberals maintain control of Canada’s Parliament. Now, the party’s head is cancelling the pact and dumping Justin Trudeau, dealing a blow to the struggling prime minister.

Political pressure, a lack of traction for the pact, and Trudeau’s surprise intervention in a union dispute brought an early end to an accord that had maintained the minority Liberal government in power for the previous two and a half years.

The surprise move has prepared Canadians for the potential that the next election could take place sooner than expected, leaving the prime minister with little time to restore his political footing.

“We know that makes the election timing more uncertain, and frankly more likely,” New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh stated this week. “We are ready to fight an election whenever it happens.”

Everyone anticipated the governing accord would fail eventually, but the unexpected breach drove Canada’s political class into a frenzy, seeking to find out what prompted Singh to act so quickly.

Trudeau’s socialist counterpart

Last month, the Liberal administration intervened to quickly resolve a labour dispute that had brought national rail services to a halt, along with a portion of foreign trade.

The decision to interfere left a bad taste in the mouth of Trudeau’s socialist counterpart in Parliament.

Singh chastised the government for putting the union and two rail corporations through binding arbitration, admitting that this was one of the reasons for his departure from the Liberal Party.

Singh’s fourth-place party first signed the arrangement in spring 2022, giving the Liberals automatic backing in Parliament, where Trudeau’s party is outnumbered and could topple if he loses the support of a majority of members of Parliament.

The agreement was set to expire in June 2025, giving Trudeau a timetable for how long he would govern before needing to go to the polls. In exchange, Singh obtained progressive policy victories in social programs, such as prescription medicine coverage for diabetes treatment and contraception, labour rights, and dental care for routine procedures for certain groups, including seniors and children.

These measures have so far failed to benefit either leader politically, while the arrangement has sparked dissatisfaction inside their own parties.

Until this week, the NDP’s fortunes were tied to Trudeau’s sinking ship, which explains Singh’s desire to break free.

According to Leichnitz, the party brain trust felt strongly that the NDP needs to distinguish itself from the Liberals by “pivoting back to issues that are a little bit more favourable for us and, frankly, not being pulled down by Trudeau’s terrible national numbers.”

For the past year, polling aggregator 338Canada has consistently shown Trudeau 20 points behind his main rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, citing problems plaguing incumbent governments around the world: high housing costs, battered health-care systems and unmanageable petrol and grocery bills.

Singh has consistently behind Trudeau and is expected to lose seats.

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