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Chatbots And Open Ai Sometimes Make Things Up. Is AI’s Hallucination Problem Fixable?

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Ai

Spend enough time with ChatGPT and other artificial intelligence chatbots; they’ll tell you to lie in no time.

It’s now a challenge for every business, organization, and high school student trying to get a generative AI system to produce documents and get work done. It’s been described as hallucination, confabulation, or just plain making things up. Some people use it for high-risk jobs, such as counseling, researching, and writing legal pleadings.

“I don’t think there’s any model today that doesn’t suffer from some hallucination,” said Daniela Amodei, co-founder and president of Anthropic, which created the chatbot Claude 2.

“They’re really just sort of designed to predict the next word,” said Amodei. “As a result, there will be a rate at which the model does that incorrectly.”

Anthropic, OpenAI, and other prominent creators of AI systems known as large language models aim to improve their accuracy.

It remains to be seen how long this will take and whether they will ever be good enough to securely provide medical advice.

“This isn’t fixable,” said Emily Bender, a linguistics professor and director of the Computational Linguistics Laboratory at the University of Washington. “It’s inherent in the mismatch between technology and proposed use cases.”

Ai

Anthropic, OpenAI, and other prominent creators of AI systems known as large language models aim to improve their accuracy.

Much depends on the dependability of generative AI technologies. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, it will add $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion to the global economy. Chatbots are only one component of this frenzy, including technologies capable of creating fresh images, videos, music, and computer code. Almost all of the technologies have a linguistic component.

Google is already pitching a news-writing AI solution to news organizations where precision is critical. The Associated Press is also looking into using the technology as part of a collaboration with OpenAI, which is paying for access to a portion of the AP’s text archive to improve its AI systems.

Ganesh Bagler, a computer scientist, has been working with India’s hotel management colleges for years to get AI systems, including a ChatGPT predecessor, to generate recipes for South Asian delicacies, such as unique variants of rice-based biryani. A single “hallucinated” component might mean the difference between a delicious and inedible meal.

When OpenAI CEO Sam Altman visited India in June, a professor at the Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology Delhi had some questions.

“I guess hallucinations in ChatGPT are still acceptable, but when a recipe comes out hallucinating, it becomes a serious problem,” Bagler remarked, rising in a full campus auditorium to address Altman on the New Delhi leg of the American tech executive’s world tour.

“What’s your take on it?” Bagler eventually inquired.

Altman showed hope if a firm commitment was needed.

“I think we’ll get the hallucination problem a lot better,” Altman said. “It will take us a year and a half, if not two years.” That sort of thing. But we won’t be discussing these at that point. There is a trade-off between originality and precision; the model must learn when you want one or the other.”

However, some specialists who have studied the technology, such as University of Washington linguist Bender, believe there needs to be more than these advancements.

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According to Bender, a language model is a system for “modeling the likelihood of different strings of word forms” given some written data on which it has been trained.

It’s how spell checkers know when you’ve typed the erroneous term. It also powers machine translation and transcription services by “smoothing the output to look more like typical text in the target language,” according to Bender. Many individuals rely on a variant of this technique when they utilize the “autocomplete” option in text messages or emails.

The latest generation of chatbots, such as ChatGPT, Claude 2, and Google’s Bard, attempt to take it a step further by producing entire new passages of text, but according to Bender, they’re still just selecting the most likely next word in a string.

Language models are “designed to make things up” when used to generate text. “They only do that,” Bender explained. They are skilled in imitating writing styles such as legal contracts, television scripts, and sonnets.

“However, because they only ever make things up, the fact that the text they have extruded happens to be interpretable as something we deem correct is by chance,” Bender explained. “Even if they can be tuned to be right more of the time, they will still have failure modes — and the failures will most likely be in cases where a person reading the text is less likely to notice, because they are more obscure.”

ai

According to Shane Orlick, the company’s president, these inaccuracies are relatively minor for marketing agencies who use Jasper AI to help them write pitches.

“Hallucinations are actually an added bonus,” stated Orlick. “We have customers who tell us all the time about how it came up with ideas — how Jasper created takes on stories or angles that they would never have thought of themselves.”

To provide its customers with an array of AI language models tailored to their needs, the Texas-based business collaborates with partners, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Facebook parent Meta. It may deliver Anthropic’s model to someone concerned about accuracy, while someone concerned about the confidentiality of their private source data may receive a different model, according to Orlick.

Orlick admitted that he understands hallucinations are difficult to treat. He expects corporations like Google, which he argues must maintain a “really high standard of factual content” for its search engine, to invest significant time and resources in finding answers.

“I think they have to fix this problem,” Orlick remarked. “They must address this.” So it’ll never be perfect, but it’ll improve over time.

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Techno-optimists, like Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, have predicted a bright future.

“I’m optimistic that, over time, AI models can be taught to distinguish fact from fiction,” Gates wrote in a July blog post about the societal implications of AI.

He noted OpenAI’s 2022 paper as an example of “promising work on this front.” Recently, researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich announced the development of a mechanism to detect and automatically eliminate some, but not all, of ChatGPT’s hallucinated content.

Even Altman, who markets the items for various purposes, relies on something other than the models to be accurate when looking for information.

“I probably trust the answers that come out of ChatGPT the least of anyone on Earth,” Altman joked to the audience at Bagler’s University.

SOURCE – (AP)

Kiara Grace is a staff writer at VORNews, a reputable online publication. Her writing focuses on technology trends, particularly in the realm of consumer electronics and software. With a keen eye for detail and a knack for breaking down complex topics, Kiara delivers insightful analyses that resonate with tech enthusiasts and casual readers alike. Her articles strike a balance between in-depth coverage and accessibility, making them a go-to resource for anyone seeking to stay informed about the latest innovations shaping our digital world.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Value Drops as Halving Date Nears

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Bitcoin Value

Bitcoin’s value has fallen dramatically recently. Compared to its most recent all-time high of $73,750, the present price of Bitcoin is under $65,000, a decline of more than 12%. Both investors and cryptocurrency aficionados have noticed this unexpected drop.

The price of Bitcoin hit a new low of about $60,090.43 in the last several days, its lowest level since February. Given this declining tendency, the reasons impacting the bitcoin market have been the subject of debate.

This fall in Bitcoin’s value is due to important variables, such as legislative developments, fluctuating investor mood, and volatile markets. For those working in the cryptocurrency industry, it is essential to have a firm grasp of these aspects to successfully traverse the current market conditions.

It is crucial to keep up with the newest trends and developments in Bitcoin pricing in order to make educated investing decisions in the ever-changing cryptocurrency market. If you want to know why Bitcoin’s value dropped recently and how the digital asset market works, read on.

Factors Behind the Bitcoin Value Drop

The recent decrease in Bitcoin’s value can be attributed to various factors that have impacted the cryptocurrency market. Let’s delve into two significant aspects contributing to the decline in Bitcoin prices.

Market Uncertainty:

The volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market often leads to uncertainty among investors, causing fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. When market conditions become unpredictable, investors may react by selling off their Bitcoin holdings to mitigate potential losses. This rush to sell can cascade, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

Market trends, such as sudden price drops or rapid increases in trading volume, can contribute to heightened uncertainty. Factors like global economic instability, regulatory changes, or even major geopolitical events can further blur the outlook for Bitcoin’s value, prompting investors to reassess their positions and opt for selling, thus influencing the price downturn.

Regulatory Developments:

Another significant factor influencing the recent Bitcoin value drop is regulatory news and changes within the cryptocurrency space. Authorities worldwide have been increasingly focusing on regulating digital assets like Bitcoin, which can impact investor sentiment and confidence in the market.

Recent announcements of stricter regulations, bans on cryptocurrency trading in certain regions, or crackdowns on unregistered exchanges have all instilled fear and uncertainty among investors. Such regulatory developments can lead to a sell-off as market participants anticipate potential hurdles in trading, compliance, or even the overall legality of holding Bitcoin.

By closely monitoring market uncertainty and regulatory developments, investors can better understand Bitcoin’s value dynamics and make informed decisions amid the evolving cryptocurrency landscape. Staying informed about these factors is crucial for navigating the volatile nature of the crypto market and adapting to changing conditions to protect investments in digital assets.

Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Price

Bitcoin halving, a fundamental event in the Bitcoin network, plays a crucial role in influencing its price dynamics. Understanding how Bitcoin halving affects supply and demand helps predict potential price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin Halving Explanation

Bitcoin halving, also known as halving, occurs approximately every four years and reduces miners’ rewards for verifying transactions by half. This process is coded into the Bitcoin protocol to limit the supply of new Bitcoins entering circulation. As a result, Bitcoin becomes scarcer over time, impacting its perceived value.

Historical Price Trends After Halving

Analyzing past Bitcoin halving events provides valuable insights into how the cryptocurrency’s price has reacted in the aftermath. Historically, Bitcoin prices have shown bullish trends post-halving, with significant price increases observed in the months following the event. This pattern is attributed to the reduced supply of new Bitcoins and increased investor demand.

By examining historical data and observing how Bitcoin’s price has behaved after previous halving events, investors and analysts can better understand potential price movements in the future. Market participants closely monitor the impact of Bitcoin’s halving on price to make informed decisions regarding their cryptocurrency investments.

Overall, Bitcoin’s halving serves as a pivotal moment that impacts Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics, ultimately influencing its market value and price fluctuations.

Bitcoin Price in USD and Recent Trend

Since the recent ups and downs in the cryptocurrency market have sparked curiosity among investors, let’s delve into the current state of Bitcoin’s value.

Current Bitcoin Price:

As of the latest data available, Bitcoin’s price in USD stands at approximately $61,244.38 per unit. Comparing this to recent highs, where Bitcoin surged above $64,000 and lows around $30,000, we can see the notable volatility that Bitcoin has experienced in the past weeks.

Price Fluctuations Analysis:

Various factors, including market demand, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic trends, have influenced the recent Bitcoin price fluctuations. The surge and retreat of Bitcoin value can be attributed to factors such as market speculation, news around Bitcoin halving events, and the overall sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market. These rapid price shifts showcase the cryptocurrency market’s unpredictable nature and the need for investors to stay updated on Bitcoin trends.

Analyzing the current Bitcoin price trend reveals a dynamic landscape where prices can shift rapidly based on market forces. Understanding the nuances of Bitcoin price fluctuations is pivotal for investors to make informed decisions about their holdings and successfully navigate the evolving cryptocurrency market landscape.

By staying informed about the latest Bitcoin to USD conversion rates and monitoring market indicators, investors can better position themselves in this fast-paced and ever-changing realm of digital currency trading. Bitcoin’s resilience and potential to act as a hedge against traditional financial assets make it a game-changer in the financial world, emphasizing the need for a strategic approach to effectively leverage its benefits.

The Role of Bitcoin Wallets in Value Fluctuations

The value of Bitcoin can experience significant fluctuations, influenced by various factors such as market demand, investor sentiment, and the role of Bitcoin wallets. Understanding how Bitcoin wallets affect price movements is essential for cryptocurrency enthusiasts.

Wallet Exchanges and Price Movement

Bitcoin transactions through wallets and exchanges play a crucial role in determining the price of Bitcoin. The volume of transactions on these platforms can impact supply and demand dynamics, affecting the overall market sentiment. Large buy or sell orders on exchanges can lead to price spikes or drops, creating volatility in the Bitcoin market. During times of high trading activity, the price of Bitcoin can experience rapid fluctuations, highlighting the interconnectedness between wallet usage and price movements.

Safety Measures in Wallet Usage

As Bitcoin’s value fluctuates, users must prioritize security measures to safeguard their investments held in Bitcoin wallets. Implementing robust security practices, such as using hardware wallets or two-factor authentication, can help protect funds from potential breaches or cyber-attacks during price drops. It is advisable for users to regularly update their wallet software, use strong passwords, and enable additional security features provided by wallet providers. By taking proactive steps to secure their Bitcoin holdings, users can mitigate price volatility risks and ensure their digital assets’ safety.

In conclusion, the role of Bitcoin wallets in value fluctuations underscores the need for users to understand the interconnected nature of wallet exchanges and price movements. By adopting proper safety measures and staying informed about market trends, cryptocurrency investors can confidently navigate through price fluctuations and protect their Bitcoin investments effectively.

Conclusion

Finally, investors are worried about Bitcoin’s future due to its recent decline in value, around $60,000. Reasons for the drop include market corrections, lower trading volumes, and significant holders taking profits after a period of high volatility.

Be wary of digital asset investments in light of this latest price drop, the biggest since February, and the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. As Bitcoin’s value keeps changing, it’s important to stay informed and cautious when dealing with an ever-changing market. To lessen the blow of price swings in the unpredictable cryptocurrency market, investors should carefully monitor market movements and consider diversifying their holdings.

 

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Bitcoin To The Moon? Here’s Why It’s Near An All-Time High, With A Surge Of 20%

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bitcoin

Last month, as bitcoin hit $45,000, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon compared it to a Pet Rock and told people to “stop talking about this s—.” Investors are currently laughing all the way to the bank.

In just five days, the cryptocurrency had surged by 20%. With Wednesday’s gains, the coin is on track to reach an all-time high of about $69,000 in November 2021, the last time it traded above $60,000.

bitcoin

Bitcoin To The Moon? Here’s Why It’s Near An All-Time High

Billions of dollars have flowed into the cryptocurrency since the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved bitcoin exchange-traded funds last month, contributing to the boom.

The other key element at work is the impending “halving” of Bitcoin. Halving is a built-in feature of Bitcoin that automatically limits the rate at which new coins enter circulation. It occurs every four years and, in principle, raises the price of Bitcoin because it increases the scarcity of an already finite currency.

This occurs because miners (the programmers responsible for solving complicated math problems inherent in the currency) see their Bitcoin-denominated payout cut in half when a threshold is reached.

bitcoin

Bitcoin To The Moon? Here’s Why It’s Near An All-Time High

In the past, halvings have triggered substantial bull markets. However, there is no clear rule that guarantees this conclusion every time. Various events, such as the prospect of additional rules, might reduce any possible advantages from a halving.

However, investors are hopeful that this will not play out, and they are hurrying to get in on the action or pay out their winnings. Coinbase, a cryptocurrency exchange platform, faced substantial interruptions due to the increased trade volume, according to CEO Brian Armstrong in a post on X Wednesday.

“Some users may see a zero balance across their Coinbase accounts & may experience errors in buying or selling,” Coinbase Support said on X at 1 p.m. ET Wednesday. “Our team is looking into this and will provide an update shortly. “Your assets are safe.”

bitcoin

Bitcoin To The Moon? Here’s Why It’s Near An All-Time High

An hour and a half later, Coinbase announced in another X post that it was “beginning to see improvement in customer trading.” It also stated that consumers may still be experiencing problems “due to increased traffic.”

Coinbase declined to comment to CNN about the problems other than the X postings.

SOURCE – (CNN)

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Cryptocurrency

A Guide to Spotting Bitcoin ETFs for Everyday Investors and Retires in 2024

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A Guide to Spotting Bitcoin ETFs for Everyday Investors and Retirees

(VORNews) – Shortly before the US Securities and Exchange Commission authorized spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (Bitcoin ETFs) on Wednesday night, it reiterated its “no FOMO” caution to investors.

The caution not to invest for “fear of missing out” stressed the volatility of digital assets, pointing out how popular cryptocurrency investments experience tremendous highs and lows, resulting in billions of dollars in profits and losses.

Gary Gensler, head of the SEC, stated following Wednesday’s announcement in which the commission approved the bitcoin ETF listing but stated that “we did not approve or endorse bitcoin.” Digital asset investment is now regulated and standardized thanks to the SEC’s approval.

However, mainstream investors should proceed with caution, according to financial analysts, because bitcoin (BTC-USD) is still seen as a speculative asset. “You have to be very careful,” said Kiran Garimella, an assistant professor at the University of South Florida Muma College of Business, speaking to Yahoo Finance from a very conservative financial standpoint. “If the financial instrument that’s being traded doesn’t actually represent anything of specific value underlying it, then you’d have to sit back and question that.”

First, what exactly is a spot Bitcoin ETF?

ETFs that track the performance of bitcoin are known as spot Bitcoin ETFs. Asset managers who hold the actual bitcoin and its current value (“spot”) as the underlying asset manage the fund, in which investors buy shares. Management fees and the thin margin between the price at which they sell the shares and the actual price of bitcoins (which fluctuates) are how these managers make money.

Although the value of ETFs will fluctuate in tandem with Bitcoin, the funds themselves may be more stable because fund administrators can employ a variety of financial instruments to mitigate the fund’s volatility.

“Investing in an ETF not only simplifies the process of purchasing, selling, and trading bitcoins, but it may also mitigate a portion of the associated strategic risk,” Garimella explained. Unknown but utilizing the alias Satoshi Nakamoto, an unidentified individual created the initial Bitcoin in 2008.

It was established on the decentralized, free market tenet that digital currencies be generated, distributed, traded, and recorded in the blockchain, a peer-to-peer ledger. In the past week, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated around $46,500; at one point last week, it surged to $49,000 due to the reactions to the SEC approval.

In 2021, when the price surpassed $65,000, the value of a coin reached its historic apex. A mere twelve months later, however, it plummeted to approximately $16,000 as investors gradually lost faith in the industry.

Do you need to include bitcoin ETFs in your portfolio?

Everyone may now possess Bitcoin in their investing or retirement accounts, according to the much-anticipated SEC clearance. No longer do investors need to purchase digital tokens directly from a crypto exchange.

Even though many Americans still don’t understand or have access to cryptocurrency, eleven new spot funds have been launched on the NYSE, CBOE, and Nasdaq, the same exchanges where equities, mutual funds, and other conventional assets are traded.

According to Garimella, the new funds significantly lessen the administrative risks associated with Bitcoin investments. Previously, interested parties needed to generate “private keys” and create a “wallet” to own the tokens. There was a chance of fraud or hacking on crypto exchanges.

“Oh, boy, you’d have to go through hoops just to acquire a fraction of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency for that matter,” said Garimella. “Most people had no clue what a wallet or private key is.” There is still a strategic risk in investing in a Bitcoin fund, even though the funds themselves are standardized.

“If you can manage to invest $5, sell it for $500, and then make a lot of money, it would be fantastic,” Garimella added. But can you be reliable and organized, and can you develop a plan to make the most of the value that results from that? Cryptocurrency and its speculative character continue to inspire widespread mistrust.

Such instruments rely only on investors’ expectations that the price of the digital asset will rise, rather than any inherent value in the asset itself. According to Mark Higgins, CFA, author of “Investing in US Financial History,” “Cryptocurrency seems like speculation that central banking will be replaced—that maybe the US dollar is going to be replaced as the dominant reserve currency,” as reported by Yahoo Finance. “I am skeptical.”

Neither the creation of a spot bitcoin ETF nor the offering of any crypto-related products are in the cards for the second-largest ETF provider, The Vanguard Group. “Our perspective is that these products do not align with our offer focused on asset classes such as equities, bonds, and cash, which Vanguard views as the building blocks of a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio,” according to the firm.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Fidelity Investment, a global leader in asset management, introduced the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), describing it as an effective tool for investors looking to get exposure to Bitcoin. “We’ve long felt a spot-priced exchange-traded vehicle would be an effective method for investors to obtain exposure to bitcoin,” stated Cynthia Lo Bessette, head of digital asset management at Fidelity.

However, investors are being asked to undertake Fidelity’s Designated Investment Agreement (DIA) when they purchase the FBTC fund, which shows how unexplored this area is. The digital product investors have been verified by the DIA to be experienced, risk-tolerant, and financially stable enough to bear the possibility of partial or whole loss of investment.

Everyone may now possess Bitcoin in their investing or retirement accounts according to the much-anticipated SEC clearance. No longer do investors want to purchase digital tokens directly from a crypto exchange. However, asset managers may mitigate the funds’ risk through complex strategies including strengthening laddering, adding call options, launching futures contracts, and hedging, thus these ETFs may be a safer method to buy bitcoins.

“When you have an ETF that does all of that stuff, it introduces a certain level of stability or risk management to that underlying instrument,” explained Garimella. “In a crypto market, you’re exposing yourself to a certain level of risk, which could be minimized with the right ETF.”

Perhaps the greatest allure of blockchains is their possible future use cases, which is why Bitcoin is the most well-known cryptocurrency in the world. Supporters of the technology think it has the potential to revolutionize the way money is exchanged. According to Garimella, who holds bitcoin for educational purposes, he is considering increasing his investment in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) shortly due to the innovations in the field that might allow the digital coin to be linked to a physical asset class.

“However, would I suggest it to my grandma as an investment?” “I highly doubt it,” Garimella remarked.

Even though many Americans still don’t understand or have access to cryptocurrency, eleven new spot funds have been launched on the NYSE, CBOE, and Nasdaq, the same exchanges where equities, mutual funds, and other conventional assets are traded.

According to Garimella, the new funds significantly lessen the administrative risks associated with bitcoin investments. Previously, interested parties needed to generate “private keys” and create a “wallet” in order to own the tokens. There was a chance of fraud or hacking on crypto exchanges.

“Oh, boy, you’d have to go through hoops just to acquire a fraction of a bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency for that matter,” said Garimella. “Most people had no clue what a wallet or private key is.”

There is still a strategic risk in investing in a Bitcoin fund, even though the funds themselves are standardized.

“If you can manage to invest $5, sell it for $500, and then make a lot of money, it would be fantastic,” Garimella added. “But can you be consistent and systematic, and can you come up with a strategy to capitalize on the value generated by that?”

Cryptocurrency and its speculative character continue to inspire widespread mistrust. Such instruments rely only on investors’ expectations that the price of the digital asset will rise, rather than any inherent value in the asset itself.

According to Mark Higgins, CFA, CFP, author of “Investing in US Financial History,” “Cryptocurrency seems like speculation that central banking will be replaced — that maybe the US dollar is going to be replaced as the dominant reserve currency,” as reported by Yahoo Finance. “I am skeptical.”

Neither the creation of a spot bitcoin ETF nor the offering of any crypto-related products are in the cards for the second-largest ETF provider, The Vanguard Group.

“Our perspective is that these products do not align with our offer focused on asset classes such as equities, bonds, and cash, which Vanguard views as the building blocks of a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio,” according to the firm.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Fidelity Investment, a global leader in asset management, introduced the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), describing it as an effective tool for investors looking to get exposure to Bitcoin.

“We’ve long felt a spot-priced exchange-traded vehicle would be an effective method for investors to obtain exposure to bitcoin,” stated Cynthia Lo Bessette, head of digital asset management at Fidelity.

However, investors are being asked to undertake Fidelity’s Designated Investment Agreement (DIA) when they purchase the FBTC fund, which shows how unexplored this area is.

The digital product investors have been verified by the DIA to be experienced, risk-tolerant, and financially stable enough to bear the possibility of partial or whole loss of investment.

Where to purchase ETFs and what fees to expect

Through their brokerage accounts, investors can purchase shares of bitcoin ETFs to diversify their portfolios. Traders can trade the funds throughout the day for liquidity, similar to other funds. ETFs approved by the SEC are funds from big financial players such as Fidelity, Invesco, and BlackRock.

The costs for managing the ETFs have been announced by many providers. The largest asset manager in the world, Blackrock (BLK), which oversees roughly $10 trillion in assets, has reduced its fee from 0.30% to 0.25%.

The new market is quite competitive, with Grayscale charging 1.5% and Franklin announcing that it will eliminate management costs until August. As of today, January 11, 2019, bitcoin’s market value of $913 billion makes it the biggest cryptocurrency in the world.

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