British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has not ruled out holding a general election in July, despite widespread uncertainty about the scheduling of the national poll. Sunak has often stated that his “working assumption” is that the election will take place in the second half of this year.

While many observers have projected an autumn referendum, Sky News’ Trevor Phillips suggested to Mr Sunak that it may be as early as July.

“Well, look, when it comes to a general election, I’ve been very clear about that multiple times,” the prime minister was quoted as saying.

Trevor Phillips pressed Mr Sunak five times during his interview, which will air in full on Sunday at 8.30am, on whether he would rule out a general election in July, but the Conservative leader refused to confirm or deny whether it may take place at that time.

“You’re going to try and draw whatever conclusion you want from what I say,” he told the audience. “I will always strive to say the same thing. You should just listen to what I said, which has been the same for the past year.

But the point is, there is an option in the general election. And look, over the last week or so… the country has a very clear idea of what that change will look like.”

Mr Sunak outlined his recent commitments to overhauling the welfare system, cutting taxes, and increasing defense spending, as well as finally getting his Rwanda bill through parliament to address small boat crossings, saying: “That is the substance of what this government is about and what it will do in the future.

“And when the election comes, there will be a clear choice, because the Labour Party has attempted to stymie our Rwanda law, because they do not believe in stopping the boats, and their economic strategy would raise people’s taxes.

“They haven’t said that they will invest more in our defence and they certainly don’t agree with reforming our welfare system to support people into work.”

Labour has stated that it intends to equal the increase in defence spending when budgetary conditions allow, and has committed to repeal the Rwanda bill if elected.

This week, the party’s pre-election focus has been on railways, threatening to renationalize train operators and “sweep away” the current “broken” model if it wins the election.

Sunak Investigated In UK Over Possible Undeclared Interest

Sunak Investigated In UK Over Possible Undeclared Interest

King Charles III is returning to royal duties next week after a three-month hiatus to focus on his treatment and recovery after being diagnosed with an unidentified type of cancer, Buckingham Palace announced Friday.

Charles will commemorate the occasion by visiting a cancer treatment center on Tuesday, the first of several public appearances planned for the coming weeks, according to the palace. One of his first significant obligations will be to welcome a state visit by Japan’s emperor and empress in June.

The palace stated that the king’s doctors are “very encouraged” by his improvement, but it is too early to determine how long his therapy will endure. It did not specify what type of treatment he is undergoing.

Charles will continue to do all of his official obligations, including examining government documents and meeting with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, as he has since his diagnosis on February 5, according to the palace.

“As the one-year anniversary of the coronation approaches, their majesties remain deeply grateful for the many kindnesses and good wishes they have received from around the world throughout the joys and challenges of the past year,” the palace said in a statement.

King Charles Slimming Down the Monarchy

Charles’ homecoming will relieve pressure on other members of the royal family, since the king’s absence, combined with that of the Princess of Wales, who was also ill, underlined the issues faced by a slimmed-down monarchy.

With the king’s commitment to cut costs and the Duke and Duchess of Sussex — more commonly known as Prince Harry and Meghan — deciding to step down from royal duties, there are simply fewer family members available to carry out the never-ending round of ribbon cuttings, awards ceremonies, and state events that comprise a modern royal’s life.

Charles has remained largely out of the public eye since undergoing treatment for an enlarged prostate in January. His later cancer diagnosis occurred as one of the most popular royals, the Princess of Wales, underwent stomach surgery and later revealed that she, too, had cancer. Prince William took time off to support his wife and their small children.

That left Queen Camilla, the king’s sister Princess Anne, and his younger brother, Prince Edward, to bear the burden.

Camilla, who was formerly despised by the public for her participation in the dissolution of Charles’ marriage to Princess Diana, took on an especially prominent role during the king’s absence, filling in for her husband at significant events such as the traditional Royal Maundy ceremony on the Thursday before Easter.

Modernizing the Monarchy

King Charles homecoming will provide an opportunity for him to revive his reign, which began in September 2022 with expectations that he would modernize the monarchy while reaching out to young people and minority groups to consolidate the royal family’s status in the twenty-first century.

Charles’ challenges include developing ties with the Commonwealth and the 14 independent countries outside the United Kingdom where the British monarch remains head of state, which some see as an unpleasant reminder of Britain’s colonial past.

The king’s return is essential because it will help to settle rumors about his health, according to royal historian George Gross, who cited Queen Elizabeth II’s maxim that the monarch must be seen to be believed.

“I think there is that feeling that it’s very difficult to have a functioning monarchy with the head of state away for any significant length of time,” said Gross, who founded the British Coronations Project at King’s College London. “And this felt like a long time.”

The palace stated that Charles’ obligations in the next months will be adjusted as needed to reduce any risks to his rehabilitation. He will not have a full summer program, and his attendance will be chosen closer to each event and in consultation with his doctors.

The summer months are typically a busy time for the royals, with significant events like the monarch’s birthday parade, known as Trooping the Colour, and the horse races at Royal Ascot.

The majority of these showcase events take place outside, which reduces the danger of infection for a cancer patient whose immune system may be compromised.

The public will gladly welcome Charles’ comeback, thanks in part to his decision to publicize his initial prostate ailment and subsequently his cancer diagnosis, which prompted many people to consult with their doctors, according to Gross.

“The monarch has seen that he can do good by discussing health and raising awareness of cancer,” he told The Associated Press. “I believe that’s at the top of this. And it is truly remarkable when a head of state can do good. That’s enormous.”

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Inflation has decreased significantly from historically high levels in both the United States and Europe. However, the United States is seeing a delay in progress, as the Federal Reserve is currently anticipated to begin reducing interest rates after the European Central Bank.

In March, the annual US inflation rate, as assessed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% in February. The Federal Reserve’s objective is to maintain a long-term inflation rate of 2%.

The Consumer Price Index, another indicator of inflation in the United States, has also exhibited a similar increasing trajectory. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.5% in March, compared to the corresponding month in 2023. This is a rise from the 3.2% recorded in February.

Europe Is Beating Inflation. Why Can’t America Declare Victory?

Meanwhile, inside the group of 20 countries that utilize the euro as their currency, the annual consumer price inflation rate has consistently decreased since the beginning of the year. The percentage was 2.4% in March.

Market predictions suggest that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to begin reducing interest rates in June, which is three months ahead of the forecasted rate decrease by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

There are even signs that the Federal Reserve may take action that, until recently, seems unimaginable – increase the interest rate for borrowing. In a recent statement, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed her support for a potential increase in interest rates if there is a slowdown or reversal in inflation.

What is the reason the United States has a more significant inflation issue than Europe?

Several economists contend that the disparity in inflation rates between the United States and Europe is insignificant, attributing it to a peculiar aspect of the measurement methods used in the United States.

Europe Is Beating Inflation. Why Can’t America Declare Victory?

In contrast to the European Central Bank’s preferred measure, both the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) take into account the expenditures associated with owning a home, which includes the potential rental income that could be earned if the property was rented out instead of being occupied by the owner.

The plan aims to monitor inflation in the real estate sector, considering the high rate of homeownership among Americans. According to Paul Donovan, the head economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, people actually need to experience these theoretical housing expenses.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) assigns a significantly higher weight to owner-occupiers’ housing expenses compared to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Specifically, the CPI assigns a weight of 32% to these costs, while the PCE assigns a weight of 13%. In contrast, the eurozone’s primary measure of consumer prices does not assign any weight (0%) to owner-occupiers’ housing costs.

Simon MacAdam, deputy chief global economist at Capital Economics, argues that the recent discrepancies between US and eurozone inflation are magnified by this transatlantic discrepancy.

When employing an alternative metric that eliminates hypothetical housing expenses and incorporates additional modifications, MacAdam discovers that core inflation rates, excluding energy and food prices, have exhibited high similarity in the United States and Europe during the previous six months.

“Contrary to recent commentary, the United States does not have a fundamental issue of widespread and excessive price pressure,” he stated in a note last week.

Economies that are moving in different directions or diverging from one other.

If the levels of inflation are essentially comparable on both sides of the Atlantic, then why are their respective central banks planning to initiate interest rate reductions at separate moments?

In essence, as MacAdam succinctly stated, central banks would modify their monetary policies based on the specific measure of inflation they aim to control rather than relying on harmonized or adjusted measures.

However, the situation is more intricate than that. “The divergence between the two sides of the Atlantic, particularly in terms of economic growth, is significant,” stated Carsten Brzeski, the global head of macroeconomic research at ING, in an interview with CNN.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the US economy is projected to see a growth rate of 2.7% this year, while the eurozone is expected to expand by only 0.8%.

In March, US firms experienced a significant surge in hiring, with the addition of 303,000 jobs marking a historic milestone. The United States government has allocated significantly more funds than European governments in recent years to provide support for consumers and businesses throughout the pandemic, resulting in a sustained and strong level of consumer demand in the United States.

Although the initial figures on Thursday indicated a lower-than-anticipated growth rate for the US economy in the first quarter, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed to Reuters that the economy is still performing quite well.

Europe’s economy has been significantly weakened, partly due to the enduring effects of an oil crisis. Following Russia’s complete invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the prices of natural gas in Europe, which used to rely on Russia for almost 40% of its pipeline gas imports, skyrocketed to unprecedented levels.

Consequently, the eurozone experienced significantly greater annual inflation than the PCE. The two rates reached 10.6% and 7.1% in 2022, respectively.

Europe Is Beating Inflation. Why Can’t America Declare Victory?

According to Brzeski, the robustness of the US economy increases the probability of a significant resurgence of high inflation. This is causing the Federal Reserve to be more cautious than the European Central Bank in initiating interest rate reductions during the summer.

Both the United States and the eurozone are currently dealing with labor shortages. This has led firms to increase pay to attract and retain workers, which in turn is contributing to inflation in the services sector. However, in a broader sense, the demand from US consumers seems to be stronger.

“The savings ratio of US households is decreasing, indicating that people in the US are willing to use their savings for spending,” he stated. “Typically, European households tend to be more prudent.”

Davide Oneglia, the director of European and global macroeconomics at research firm TS Lombard, has a comparable perspective. “The US consumer is exhibiting a greater inclination to engage in spending due to a potentially improved outlook for their own employment situation,” he stated in an interview with CNN.

SOURCE – (CNN)