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Coface Risk Review 2025: The Great Leap Backwards
TAIWAN– With global tensions and uncertain trade policies, the world economy faces challenges between a likely slowdown and the risk of further shocks Colface reports. Decisions on tariffs by the Trump administration and ongoing conflict in the Middle East are shaping what could be an unpredictable economic climate for 2025 and 2026.
In response to these conditions and current measures, Coface Risk Review has lowered its outlook for 23 industry sectors and 4 countries.
Main trends:
- US tariffs remain at high levels, even as some have been paused or reduced
- Nearly 80% of developed countries reported more business defaults in the first quarter of 2025 than in 2024
- The metal industry has been hit hardest, with automotive and chemicals also under strain
- Other downgraded sectors include information technology and retail in the US, and textiles and clothing in China, which are feeling the impact of tariffs.
Global economy: living with uncertainty
The outlook for the global economy is now more uncertain, shaped by political events and trade moves led by the US President. The return of tariffs after a 90-day break—on July 9 for most countries and August 12 for China—could impact global growth. Predictions suggest a slowdown in growth at 2.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, but if tensions rise, growth could drop below 2%.
Inflation is also under pressure. Stability may not last, and it could hit 4% in the US by late 2025, especially if energy prices climb. Central banks are expected to keep a cautious approach. If US inflation is controlled, the Federal Reserve may lower rates in autumn 2025. The European Central Bank plans to continue cutting rates, but says it is nearing the lowest point it will go.
In Europe, uncertainty is rising as countries may finally start tightening their budgets. Germany has launched a stimulus plan, but its full impact is still unclear.
Middle East conflict and oil supply: a tricky balance
The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has brought fresh worries about oil supply. Any disruption or blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 million barrels a day (about 20% of the world’s supply), could push oil prices above $100 a barrel. Without these tensions, however, rising output from countries outside OPEC+ and weaker demand from trade tensions could see prices fall. OPEC+ is also putting 2.2 million barrels a day back into the market. Unless there is a major crisis, prices are likely to remain very changeable but stay between $65 and $75 a barrel.
Developed economies: both strong and exposed
In the US, uncertainty around how the economy will cope with tariffs is affecting confidence. Consumer outlook is down, but jobs have held steady. The small drop in GDP in the first quarter reflects companies building up stock as a precaution.
Across Europe, Germany saw some growth in early 2025, while France’s economy remains quiet. Italy may lose momentum, but Spain continues to benefit from tourism and EU funds.
Emerging economies face bigger risks from trade changes
China enjoyed a jump in exports during the recent pause on tariffs, but its prospects remain fragile. India’s growth stayed above 7% in the first quarter, yet spending has started to cool and the government has less room to spend.
Mexico is feeling the strain from global trade uncertainty, with no growth expected in 2025. Brazil, after a strong year in farming following losses from El Niño, now faces contraction due to high interest rates (the key rate is up to 15%). In Argentina, the economic policy known as Mileinomics is driving growth. Even with low foreign currency reserves, Argentina could achieve 5% growth in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
Metals industry: global steel overcapacity
The metals sector is under pressure, facing a surplus of 600 million tonnes of steel in 2024, a quarter of total world production. Weak demand, energy costs, and new steel tariffs are making life tougher for producers, particularly in Canada, Mexico, and Europe.
Canada: tariffs weigh on growth
With three-quarters of its exports going to the US, Canada is one of the hardest-hit countries by the trade disputes. Growth momentum faded after a burst in late 2024. Consumer spending and investment are both down, and unemployment stands at 6.9%, the highest since 2017.
According to Coface, exports fell sharply in April as firms rushed to avoid tariff hikes. The car and metal industries, hit with tariff increases up to 50%, have been especially affected. The upcoming review of the USMCA agreement, expected by the end of 2025, could add to Canada’s economic worries.
Read the full study here.
COFACE: For Trade
Coface has supported companies worldwide for nearly 80 years, helping them grow and manage risks in uncertain times.
Coface serves 100,000 clients in around 200 countries and offers a range of services including Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Risk Insurance, Surety Bonds, and Factoring.
Each day, Coface uses its experience and advanced tools to support trade, both at home and overseas. In 2024, Coface had over 5,200 employees and a turnover of about €1.845 billion.
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Trump Warns China as Vance Leads Peace Talks with Iran
WASHINGTON, D.C. – President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Beijing, signaling a shift in U.S. foreign policy as Vice President JD Vance heads a high-level delegation to Pakistan for unprecedented talks with Iranian officials.
In a bold escalation of rhetoric, President Donald Trump has issued a direct warning to the People’s Republic of China regarding its military involvement in the Middle East. Speaking from the Oval Office, the President made it clear that any attempt by Beijing to supply weaponry to Iran would be met with severe consequences.
“China is going to have big problems—very big problems—if they decide to ship weapons to Iran,” Trump stated. “We are looking for peace, but we are also looking at the facts. You cannot play both sides of the fence when the stability of the world is at stake.”
The warning comes as intelligence reports suggest increased logistics cooperation between Beijing and Tehran. For the Trump administration, the message is twofold: a demand for Chinese neutrality and a demonstration of American leverage over global trade routes and sanctions.
Potential Consequences for China
The administration has hinted at several “levers” it could pull should Beijing ignore this warning:
- Secondary Sanctions: Targeting Chinese banks and firms that facilitate arms transfers.
- Trade Restrictions: Implementing further tariffs or export controls on sensitive technology.
- Diplomatic Isolation: Working with allies to limit Chinese influence in Middle Eastern security frameworks.
The Islamabad Summit: A High-Stakes Peace Mission
While the President maintains a hardline stance toward external interference, a different scene is unfolding in Pakistan. Vice President JD Vance is currently leading a specialized U.S. delegation to Islamabad for a Saturday meeting with high-ranking Iranian officials.
This mission represents one of the most significant diplomatic gambles of the Trump presidency. The goal is clear: to establish a “path to peace” and de-escalate years of mounting tension that have brought the region to the brink of open conflict.
The Delegation Members
The composition of the U.S. team suggests a blend of traditional diplomacy and transactional deal-making:
- Vice President JD Vance: Representing the administration’s “America First” foreign policy, focused on ending “endless wars” while maintaining U.S. strength.
- Steve Witkoff: A trusted confidant of the President and special envoy known for his pragmatic approach to complex negotiations.
- Jared Kushner: The architect of the Abraham Accords, returning to the diplomatic fold to leverage his existing relationships in the region.
Why Pakistan?
The choice of Pakistan as a venue is no accident. Islamabad has long maintained a delicate balancing act between its relationship with the United States and its neighbor, Iran. By choosing this neutral ground, both Washington and Tehran are signaling a willingness to step outside the usual frameworks of Western-led summits.
Sources close to the delegation suggest that Pakistan’s leadership has been instrumental in facilitating the logistics for this meeting, acting as a “quiet bridge” between the two adversaries.
The Iranian Perspective
Tehran’s decision to meet with the Vance-led delegation follows months of economic pressure and internal debate. While the Iranian leadership remains publicly cautious, the presence of figures like Kushner—who has a track record of facilitating regional agreements—indicates that the talks may move beyond rhetoric into the realm of tangible concessions.
Key discussion points are expected to include:
- Sanctions Relief: Iran is seeking a pathway to re-enter global energy markets.
- Regional Security: A cessation of hostilities involving proxy groups.
- Nuclear Limitations: Reviving a framework for monitoring Iranian nuclear capabilities that satisfies U.S. security requirements.
Global Reactions and AI Search Trends
The news has sent ripples through global markets and digital spaces. International observers are questioning whether this “Carrot and Stick” approach—threatening China while talking to Iran—can produce a lasting equilibrium.
Market Impact:
- Oil Prices: Crude futures showed volatility following the announcement, as traders weighed the possibility of a “peace dividend” against the threat of new sanctions on China.
- Defense Stocks: Renewed interest in maritime security and surveillance technology as the U.S. monitors Chinese shipping lanes.
Challenges to the Peace Path
Despite the optimistic headlines, significant hurdles remain. Hardliners in both Washington and Tehran are skeptical of a “quick fix.” Furthermore, China’s reaction to Trump’s warning could redefine the success of the Pakistan summit. If Beijing feels backed into a corner, it may increase its support for Iran simply to counter American influence.
Conclusion: A New Era of Diplomacy?
The events of this Saturday could define the foreign policy legacy of the current administration. By combining aggressive economic threats against spoilers like China with direct, high-level engagement with adversaries like Iran, President Trump is attempting to rewrite the diplomatic playbook.
Whether Vice President Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner can return from Islamabad with a framework for peace remains to be seen. However, the world is now on notice: the United States is willing to talk, but it is equally prepared to act.
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Eric Swalwell Faces Explosive Rape Accusation From Former Staffer
SACRAMENTO, CA — U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell, a prominent Democrat and a front-runner in the 2026 California gubernatorial race, is facing a political and legal firestorm following a series of explosive sexual misconduct allegations.
On Friday, the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported that a former congressional staffer has accused Swalwell of raping her, while three other women have come forward with claims of sexual harassment and inappropriate behavior.
The allegations have sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party, leading to a mass exodus of campaign staff and a chorus of calls for Swalwell’s resignation from high-ranking officials, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
The most serious charge comes from an unnamed woman who previously worked in Swalwell’s district office. In interviews, the woman detailed two non-consensual encounters:
- 2019 Incident: The staffer claims she was sexually assaulted by Swalwell in California while she was an employee in his office. She stated she was “heavily intoxicated” and unable to provide consent.
- 2024 Incident: A second alleged assault occurred in a New York hotel room after she had left his staff. The woman told CNN she was “pushing him off” and saying no, but he did not stop.
- Physical Evidence: The accuser described being left “bruised and bleeding” following the 2024 encounter. Reports indicate that friends and family members have corroborated that she spoke to them about the trauma shortly after it occurred.
The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office confirmed on Saturday that it has opened an investigation into the New York allegations, urging any potential witnesses to contact their Special Victims Division.
A Pattern of Misconduct: Three Other Accusers
Beyond the former staffer’s harrowing account, three additional women have come forward to detail a pattern of alleged sexual harassment by the Congressman. These claims include:
- Unsolicited Explicit Material: Two women allege receiving unwanted sexual messages and explicit images from Swalwell.
- Unwelcome Advances: Accusers described a history of “unwelcome advances” and “inappropriate touching” that occurred over several years.
- Retaliation Claims: Some women reported receiving “cease-and-desist” letters from Swalwell’s legal team shortly before the stories went public, which critics describe as an attempt to silence victims.
Rep. Swalwell has vehemently denied the allegations of sexual assault, calling them “politically motivated lies” timed to sabotage his bid for Governor. In a video statement released Friday night, a defiant Swalwell addressed the public.
“These allegations of sexual assault are flat false. They did not happen,” Swalwell said. While he admitted to “mistakes in judgment” regarding his marriage—issuing a public apology to his wife, Brittany Ann Watts—he maintained that no criminal or non-consensual acts ever took place. His legal team argues that the former staffer maintained a “voluntary and cooperative relationship” with him for years, even seeking job references after the alleged incidents.
Political Fallout and Resignations
The impact on Swalwell’s campaign has been immediate and devastating. His bid to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom appears to be in a state of collapse as key supporters withdraw their endorsements.
Major Developments in the Scandal:
- Staff Resignations: Senior campaign advisers, including Courtni Pugh, and several congressional staffers have resigned, stating they are “horrified” by the reports.
- Loss of Endorsements: High-profile Democrats, including California Senators Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, have called for him to drop out of the race.
- Democratic Leadership Response: Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the allegations “deeply disturbing” and urged a swift, transparent investigation.
- Suspended Funding: “Californians for a Fighter,” a major super PAC supporting Swalwell, has suspended its operations.
As the Manhattan DA begins its probe, the House Ethics Committee is also expected to face pressure to open a formal inquiry. While Swalwell has vowed to “fight with everything I have,” the severity of the “bruised and bleeding” testimony, combined with the testimony of three other women, has created a hurdle that many political analysts believe is insurmountable.
The June non-partisan primary is just weeks away. For now, the Congressman remains in his seat, though his future in both the Capitol and the Governor’s mansion hangs by a thread.
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Moon Mission Success: Artemis II Crew Splashes Down Safely in the Pacific
SAN DIEGO – The roar of the engines has been replaced by the gentle lapping of Pacific waves. Today, humanity took its biggest leap toward the lunar surface in over fifty years as the Artemis II mission concluded with a perfect splashdown off the coast of California.
The Orion spacecraft, scorched from its fiery re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere, bobbed in the water as Navy recovery teams moved in. Onboard were four pioneers who now hold a place in the history books, having completed a ten-day journey that took them further into deep space than any human has ever traveled.
The recovery operation was a precision dance between NASA and the U.S. Navy. The USS San Diego stood by as helicopters and inflatable boats surrounded the capsule.
The crew—Commander Reid Wiseman, Pilot Victor Glover, and Mission Specialists Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen—emerged from the hatch to the cheers of recovery teams. Despite the physical toll of returning from microgravity, the astronauts appeared in high spirits, waving to the cameras that captured the moment for millions watching around the globe.
Key Milestones of the Artemis II Mission
This wasn’t just a flight; it was a stress test for the future of human exploration. During their 10.3-day mission, the crew achieved several historic firsts:
- Deep Space Record: The crew traveled thousands of miles beyond the far side of the moon, setting a record for the furthest distance from Earth reached by a crewed spacecraft.
- Life Support Validation: This was the first time the Orion’s life support systems were tested with humans on board in the harsh environment of deep space.
- Diverse Representation: The mission included the first woman, the first person of color, and the first non-American (Canadian) to fly to the vicinity of the moon.
The Fiery Path Home
The return to Earth is often the most dangerous part of any lunar mission. Orion hit the top of the atmosphere traveling at nearly 25,000 miles per hour.
As the spacecraft pushed against the air, the heat shield endured temperatures of about 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit—half as hot as the surface of the sun. For several minutes, the friction of re-entry caused a total communications blackout, a tense period of silence that ended only when the first drogue parachutes blossomed against the blue California sky.
“Everything worked exactly as the simulations predicted,” said a NASA flight director during a press briefing shortly after the landing. “The heat shield performed flawlessly, and the skip-entry maneuver allowed us to pinpoint the landing site with incredible accuracy.”
Why Artemis II Matters
While Artemis II did not land on the moon, it paved the way for those who will. By proving that the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and the Orion capsule can safely transport humans to lunar orbit and back, NASA has cleared the final major hurdle before Artemis III.
Artemis III, currently scheduled for late 2026 or 2027, aims to put boots back on the lunar South Pole. This mission will include the first woman and person of color to actually walk on the moon’s surface.
What Happens Next?
Now that the crew is back on solid ground, the work for NASA scientists is just beginning.
- Medical Evaluations: The astronauts will undergo weeks of testing to see how deep-space radiation and weightlessness affect their bodies.
- Data Analysis: Engineers will strip down the Orion capsule to study how the hardware held up.
- Future Training: The lessons learned from this flight will be integrated into the training for the Artemis III crew.
A New Era of Discovery
The success of Artemis II signals a shift in how we view space. We are no longer just visiting; we are preparing to stay. With the planned Lunar Gateway station and future base camps on the surface, the moon is becoming a stepping stone for the eventual journey to Mars.
As the sun sets over the Pacific today, the world looks up at the moon with a little more familiarity. We’ve been back, we’ve seen the far side with our own eyes, and soon, we will be walking among the craters once again.
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