California’s 2026 governor race is starting to look very different from what many expected. New polling shows two Republicans at the front of the crowded nonpartisan primary. At the same time, thousands of residents and major employers are leaving the state, along with other blue states, for places with lower taxes and lighter regulation.
Many voters seem worn out by high prices, strict rules, and daily quality-of-life concerns. The trend is hard to miss. Californians are leaving in large numbers, and that frustration now appears to be shaping the early race for governor.
Poll Surprise: Republicans Move to the Front in the Primary
California’s June 2026 primary follows the state’s top-two system. The two highest vote-getters move on to November, no matter what party they belong to.
Recent surveys point to a close but meaningful contest. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released this week showed conservative commentator Steve Hilton at 17 percent and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16 percent. Several Democrats followed behind them, including Congressman Eric Swalwell at 13 to 14 percent, former Rep. Katie Porter at 13 percent, and activist billionaire Tom Steyer at 10 percent.
Other polling has shown a similar pattern. In February, the Public Policy Institute of California found Hilton and Bianco among the top five candidates, both in double digits. Emerson College polls in recent months also placed Republicans near or at the top, while Democrats split support across several campaigns and many voters stayed undecided, in some cases as high as 25 to 28 percent.
That matters because Republicans almost never lead statewide polls in heavily Democratic California. Still, the Democratic field is crowded, with nine candidates dividing liberal voters. That gives Republican contenders a clear opening. Hilton has centered his campaign on lower costs and pro-business changes. Bianco has focused on public safety and reducing red tape. Both are speaking to voter anger over affordability and regulation.
Why Blue States Are Losing Residents at a Record Pace
California posted a net loss of 229,000 residents to other states between July 2024 and July 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. That was the biggest domestic migration loss in the country. New York and Illinois also saw major outflows.
Over the last five years, blue states together lost nearly 3.8 million people through net internal migration. Meanwhile, red and purple states added millions.
Top reasons many Californians give for leaving:
• Very high home prices and rent
• California’s top state income tax rate of 13.3 percent, along with proposed wealth taxes
• Tough business and environmental rules
• Homelessness, crime, and a high overall cost of living
• Better job options in other states
A proposed 2026 “Billionaire Tax” on net worth above $1 billion appears to have added to the rush. Tech executives and investors say the one-time 5 percent levy, applied retroactively to January 1, 2026, pushed many wealthy residents to relocate sooner. Some estimates say $1 trillion to $2 trillion in wealth has already left California, or is preparing to do so.
The same pattern has shown up elsewhere. New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Massachusetts all posted net losses as people moved to states with lower taxes and fewer restrictions.
Companies Are Leaving Too, and the List Keeps Growing
The flow of people out of California mirrors what many businesses are doing. In 2025 alone, several major companies moved out of the state:
• Chevron moved its headquarters to Houston, Texas
• In-N-Out Burger relocated to Tennessee
• John Paul Mitchell Systems moved to Wilmer, Texas
• Public Storage shifted to Texas
• Playboy Enterprises relocated to Miami, Florida
Tesla, SpaceX, and X, formerly Twitter, had already moved under Elon Musk. Oracle left years earlier. Reports show that hundreds of headquarters have exited California since 2017, and the pace appears to be picking up. One analysis found that 3 percent of California businesses relocated out of the state in 2025.
Why companies are leaving:
• High corporate taxes and heavy regulation
• Rising labor and energy costs
• Easier permits and lower taxes in states like Texas and Florida
• Better access to growing markets without the same level of red tape
Texas and Florida led the way in attracting new businesses. Both states have no state income tax, lower overall tax burdens, and policies widely seen as business-friendly. In addition, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Idaho ranked high for inbound moves in 2025 U-Haul and Census data.
How the Exodus Is Affecting the Governor’s Race
Voters are paying attention to the outflow. Polls show affordability is the top issue for nearly two-thirds of likely voters. Because of that, views on taxes, housing, and jobs are shaping support more than party labels in many cases.
Independent voters have split their support between Hilton, Bianco, and the top Democratic candidates. Many say they want a break from the status quo. Bianco has argued that California needs bold new ideas to lower costs and grow jobs, a message that lines up with the frustration behind so many moving trucks heading out of state.
Hilton has made a similar case, saying California must reduce regulations that push employers away. Both Republicans say they want to make the state competitive again. Democrats in the race offer different answers, but they also face pressure to explain why California keeps losing residents after years of Democratic control.
Democrats still have an edge in a general election because of voter registration. Even so, the early Republican lead points to broad dissatisfaction. If one or both Republicans reach November, the race could center on taxes and regulation, the same issues driving many people and businesses to leave blue states.
A Bigger Pattern Across Blue States
California is not alone in dealing with this shift. New York, Illinois, and New Jersey are seeing similar trends. Census data shows that several red states continue to gain residents:
• Texas: +67,000 net domestic migrants
• Florida: +22,000, lower than pandemic highs but still positive
• North Carolina: +84,000, the highest in the nation
• South Carolina, Tennessee, and Idaho also posted strong gains
These states tend to offer lower taxes, fewer rules, cheaper housing, and in many cases stronger public safety. In simple terms, people move to places where they believe life will be easier for their families and better for their businesses.
Economists say this shift is also costing blue states large amounts of tax revenue. California alone has lost tens of billions of dollars in recent years. The pattern has continued into 2026, and fears over new wealth taxes seem to be speeding it up.
What’s Next for California?
The June primary will decide which two candidates move on. Early polling gives Republicans their strongest opening in decades to reach the November ballot. Whether they win or not, the message from voters is getting harder to ignore: high taxes and heavy regulation are pushing people and jobs elsewhere.
Leaders in blue states are now under pressure to respond. They can lower costs and ease rules, or they can watch more residents and employers move to lower-tax states.
For now, the numbers point in the same direction. Republicans are gaining momentum in California’s governor race. The migration data helps explain why. Families and businesses are choosing places with lower taxes and fewer barriers. The 2026 race may show whether California is ready to change course, or keep losing more people and investment.
