ATLANTA, Ga – A new twist has hit the early 2028 presidential race, and it could reshape the Republican field. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten says fresh polling and prediction market numbers now show Secretary of State Marco Rubio rising into possible front-runner status. Rubio, once viewed as a long shot, is suddenly drawing serious attention as his odds climb fast, while Vice President JD Vance faces a tougher fight to stay on top.
In a recent CNN News Central segment, Enten highlighted Rubio’s sharp rise and tied it to strong Republican support for his foreign policy record. At the same time, Vance remains a major player, and conservative group Turning Point USA has already promised to help elect him in 2028.
This early shift comes as Republicans look ahead to a post-Trump race. With no sitting president in the mix, the field is open. Right now, new numbers suggest Rubio may be moving faster than many expected.
Harry Enten Lays Out Rubio’s Rapid Rise
Harry Enten, known on CNN for breaking down polls and betting data in plain terms, gave Rubio a glowing review in a recent appearance. After looking at updated prediction market numbers, he described Rubio as “hot, hot, hot, like a summer heat wave.”
Enten pointed to Kalshi’s market for the 2028 Republican nomination, where Rubio’s odds climbed to 27 percent. Just six months earlier, he sat at 7 percent.
Even Enten sounded surprised by the jump. “He was just at 7% six months ago. Hello, up like a rocket. 27% chance now,” he said. “That’s quadrupling his chances in four months’ time.”
Rubio is also gaining in broader White House markets:
- On Kalshi’s general election market, Rubio reached 20 percent, just ahead of JD Vance and Democratic favorite Gavin Newsom, who both stood at 18 percent.
- On Polymarket, Rubio posted 18.8 percent for the presidency, narrowly topping Newsom at 18.5 percent and Vance at 17.3 percent.
Those numbers mark a big change from earlier this year. At that point, Vance led GOP betting markets with roughly 48 percent for the nomination. He also posted strong primary numbers in New Hampshire, where he drew 51 percent support, a lead Enten had earlier called “unprecedented.”
Now, Rubio’s upward trend suggests he could move past Vance and take the top spot. Political analysts often say betting markets can reflect changing voter mood long before the first primary ballot is cast.
Why Rubio Is Climbing, Approval Ratings, and Trump Ties
Rubio’s rise appears closely tied to his role as Secretary of State. Recent U.S. action involving Iran won broad support from Republican voters. Among GOP voters, 89 percent approved, and support was nearly unanimous among MAGA Republicans.
Enten also said Rubio’s personal approval rating among Republicans has reached 81 percent. That puts him ahead of recent Secretaries of State, including Antony Blinken during the Biden years. History also helps Rubio’s case, since six former secretaries of state have later won the presidency.
Enten added that Rubio’s close connection to Trump matters, too. He pointed to their public chemistry and said Rubio seems to be benefiting from the administration’s good standing without losing support from the party base.
Rubio has also stayed active on issues Republicans care about most, including immigration and the economy. Those issues played a major role in Trump’s wins. His background in Florida and his years in the Senate also give him appeal in key battleground states.
JD Vance Remains a Strong Rival Despite Rubio’s Momentum
Even with Rubio getting fresh buzz, JD Vance is still firmly in the race. Early polling shows he keeps strong backing among working-class voters, and he still benefits from the name recognition that came with the 2024 ticket.
Earlier, Enten praised Vance’s lead in colorful terms. He compared Vance to Mario Andretti and said the rest of the field looked like “go-karts.” For months, Vance controlled New Hampshire polls and led prediction markets.
Today, he still holds a strong place near the top. His America First message and appeal to younger conservatives keep him in the fight. In addition, his role as vice president gives him direct access to donors, party activists, and voters across the country.
The battle between Rubio and Vance could shape where the Republican Party heads next. Rubio brings a foreign policy record. Vance speaks more directly to domestic populism. Both fit into the broader Trump movement, but they carry it in different ways.
Turning Point USA Backs JD Vance for 2028
Turning Point USA has already made its position clear. Erika Kirk, the group’s new CEO and the widow of founder Charlie Kirk, said the organization plans to throw its support behind Vance.
Speaking at a recent Turning Point event, she told the crowd, “We are going to get my husband’s friend JD Vance elected for ’28 in the most resounding way possible.”
Kirk also said one of Charlie Kirk’s final conversations centered on support for Vance. She later told reporters that efforts to back a possible JD Vance presidential run are already underway.
Turning Point USA plans to organize young conservative voters, run turnout efforts, and spread Vance’s message online and on college campuses. Because the group has strong reach with Republicans under 30, its support could matter in early primary states.
That endorsement reinforces Vance’s standing inside the MAGA movement. At the same time, it shows how unsettled the race still is, with major allies lining up behind different contenders.
What Rubio’s Surge Means for the 2028 Race
Rubio’s rise comes at an important moment. President Trump has not named a preferred successor, and reports say he has weighed both Rubio and Vance in discussions with donors.
Polls and prediction markets can swing quickly. Still, Enten’s read on the data points to real momentum behind Rubio. If his approval numbers stay high and his foreign policy record continues to help him, he could strengthen his grip on the Republican nomination fight.
Vance, on the other hand, still has a clear path. He can lean on grassroots support, his vice presidential profile, and Turning Point’s organizing power. His team is also likely to focus on domestic wins tied to the current administration.
Other possible Republican names, including Nikki Haley and Tulsi Gabbard, remain far behind in current markets, both below 10 percent. On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom has started to emerge as an early favorite in some betting models.
Voters continue to rank the economy and border security as top concerns. Recent Harvard CAPS/Harris polling shows both Rubio and Vance perform well on those issues.
No one has officially launched a 2028 campaign yet, but the race is already gaining heat. Early fundraising, endorsements, and public visibility will shape who breaks through first.
Rubio vs. Vance, Key Strengths at a Glance
- Marco Rubio: Strong foreign policy profile, 81 percent GOP approval, rising odds that reached 27 percent for the nomination, plus a historical boost from the secretary of state’s track record.
- JD Vance: Early primary strength, including 51 percent in New Hampshire, support from Turning Point USA, a loyal MAGA base, and the visibility that comes with serving as vice president.
- Shared advantage: Both closely align with Trump’s agenda on immigration and the economy.
Analysts still warn against reading too much into early data. Prediction markets show a moment in time, not an outcome. Even so, Rubio’s rise has been fast enough to grab attention across the political world.
Enten’s latest breakdown makes one thing clear: Rubio is gaining ground quickly and now looks capable of challenging, and maybe passing, the rest of the field.
As 2028 moves closer, more polls, more endorsements, and more surprises are sure to follow. For now, Rubio’s jump in the numbers has put him in a strong spot at the front of the Republican race.
The next several months will show whether Rubio can keep that momentum going, or whether Vance’s organized support helps him reclaim the lead. One thing is clear: the 2028 race is underway, and the drama has already started.
