HUSTON, Texas – Democrats want to flip a Texas U.S. Senate seat in 2026, and many national leaders are lining up behind U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). She’s a loud, combative progressive with a big online following, known for viral clashes with Republicans and blunt hits at President Donald Trump. Crockett jumped into the race in early December 2025, right after former Rep. Colin Allred dropped out.
That late entry quickly made her the party’s headline candidate in a state where Democrats haven’t won statewide since 1994.
Crockett says her path to victory runs through turnout. Her campaign is centered on reaching voters who often sit out midterms, with a strong focus on Black communities and other groups she says the party overlooks. Still, new polling, renewed anger from Latino voters over old comments, and growing tension inside the Texas Democratic Party are starting to make this strategy look risky.
Crockett’s Fast Start and Big Expectations
Crockett launched her Senate bid on December 8, 2025, just hours before the filing deadline. She leaned into her national profile as a second-term member of Congress and one of the party’s most outspoken messengers. On the trail, she’s framed her run around everyday issues like costs, homeownership, small business growth, and raising middle-class incomes.
Her core argument is simple. Texas can be won by turning out people who rarely vote, not by chasing conservatives. She points to Texas as a majority-minority state with growing Black and Latino populations, and says Democrats leave votes on the table when they focus too much on persuasion.
Right after her announcement, early signs looked good. A Texas Southern University poll in mid-December 2025 put her ahead in the Democratic primary, 51% to 43% over state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin).
The same poll showed huge support among Black voters, at 89%. Some Democrats saw Crockett as the kind of high-energy candidate who could boost turnout, similar to how Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate run helped down-ballot Democrats even though he lost.
National strategists also like the target. The seat is held by Sen. John Cornyn (R), and Democrats see Texas as one of the few states that could help shift Senate control in 2026, with Trump still dominating Republican politics.
New Polling Shows Trouble
The early buzz hasn’t held. A January 2026 Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey of likely Democratic primary voters showed Talarico moving into the lead, 47% to 38%, with 15% undecided. The poll was conducted January 10-12. It also laid out the split inside the party. Talarico ran strongest among white voters (57%), Latino voters (59%), and men, while Crockett stayed dominant with Black Democrats (80%).
General election tests have also raised alarms. In one matchup, Cornyn led Crockett 48% to 43%. Other Republicans, including Rep. Wesley Hunt, posted similar advantages. A Change Research poll from late 2025 showed Crockett behind Cornyn (49% to 41%) and behind Attorney General Ken Paxton (50% to 42%). That polling also showed her with higher unfavorables, at 40% unfavorable compared with 33% favorable.
Taken together, the numbers point to a clear problem. Crockett is well-known, but some voters already have strong opinions about her. And in a state where Republicans still hold an edge in voter registration and turnout habits, Democrats may need more than base energy to win statewide.
Latino Voters React to Past Comments
One of Crockett’s biggest weak spots comes from remarks that have followed her into the race. In a 2024 Vanity Fair interview, she criticized some Latino voters who support strict immigration policies or back Trump, calling it a “slave mentality” and describing it as internalized oppression. Those comments resurfaced during the campaign and sparked sharp backlash.
That matters in Texas. The state is roughly 40% Hispanic, and Latino voters often decide close statewide races. Some Democratic strategists have warned the comments could push key voters away, including Chuck Rocha, a Democratic operative and former Bernie Sanders adviser.
At stops in San Antonio, Crockett has tried to explain herself, saying she was speaking about views she has heard and stressing shared history between Black and Latino communities. Still, concern has spread within the party. One Hispanic Democratic lawmaker told The Independent that any comment with potential impact should be taken seriously.
Talarico has used the opening to build relationships in Latino-heavy parts of the state, including endorsements in the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, Republicans are already using the controversy in messaging that paints Crockett as divisive.
Texas Democrats Are Split, and It’s Getting Loud
The Crockett versus Talarico contest is also exposing deeper disagreements among Texas Democrats. Some operatives love Crockett’s aggressive style and say it’s what the party needs to spark low-propensity voters and match Republican intensity.
Others, including former party leaders, worry she’s too polarizing for a statewide race. They fear her approach could turn off moderates and independents, or even dampen support among Democrats who want a calmer messenger.
Her late entry also upset some insiders who had been planning around a different field before Allred exited. And Republicans have made their view clear. Some GOP figures have encouraged Crockett’s run, with Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson describing it as a gift for Republicans.
The Democratic primary is set for March 3, 2026. The fight has become a stand-in for a bigger argument inside the party: push hard with progressive fire, or pick a candidate who feels safer and more unifying.
A Risky Bet in a State That Stays Red
Republicans have their own problems. Cornyn and Paxton have been running close, and the GOP race could head to a May runoff. That gives Democrats a small opening, but only if they come out of their primary ready to unite.
For Crockett, the path is narrow. She needs to close polling gaps, repair trust with Latino voters, and pull the party together after a tense primary. If she wins the nomination, she’ll face a tough general election against a Republican who starts with the advantage Texas Republicans have held for three decades.
Right now, the warning signs are hard to ignore. What began as an exciting, high-profile bet could end up as a reminder that statewide Texas races punish mistakes fast.
