(VOR News) – ASML’s success in the second quarter may have disappointed investors’ expectations for 2026.
The Dutch chip-machine behemoth surpassed forecasts with €7.7 billion in revenue, €2.3 billion in profit, and €5.5 billion in orders, driven by a €2.3 billion windfall from its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and a burgeoning demand for artificial intelligence (AI).
ASML couldn’t predict growth in 2026 because of Trump’s tariff threats.
“We observe that the fundamentals of our AI customers remain robust,” stated ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet in a statement. In the interim, we continue to observe an increase in uncertainty as a result of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.
Consequently, we are unable to affirm the expansion in 2026 at this time, although we are still in the process of preparing for it. ASML shares had plummeted by as much as 8% in European trade and approximately 10% on Wall Street as of 11 a.m. ET, resulting in a decline in other chip firms and vibrations in the European semiconductor and IT industries.
The analysts operated at a rapid pace. In 2026, Jefferies revised its forecast from 7% growth to a potential 2% decline, reclassifying the stock from “Buy” to “Hold.”
In addition to highlighting the delays in the introduction of ASML’s next-generation High-NA systems, which are instruments that represent the future of ultra-precise chip fabrication, Barclays also highlighted signs of declining demand from Intel and Samsung.
For the first time in years, Fouquet’s remarks suggest that ASML may not guarantee growth. Additionally, the comments align with the expected start of the AI-powered golden era for the global semiconductor industry. Nevertheless, there is a genuine geopolitical threat to the enterprise.
The price of ASML’s top-tier EUV machines may rise from €250 million to €325 million as a result of a 30% U.S. tax on EU products that is set to take effect on August 1.
Such an increase would impede investment decisions and suspend the acquisition of U.S. factory equipment until the trade winds have stabilized.
US-Amsterdam components are often transported by ASML.
In a pre-recorded interview that was uploaded to ASML’s website, Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen stated that the beat was the result of revenue from updating presently deployed machines and tariffs having a “less negative” impact than anticipated.
During a teleconference with reporters, Dassen declared that the Dutch company is prepared to transfer the majority of the tariff charges to customers. In our opinion, tariffs should be allocated fairly.
Consequently, we believe that the preponderance of that allocation should be allocated to individuals who are using it in the United States. However, not all objects are experiencing a freeze. The demand for AI remains high, particularly among Chinese consumers and TSMC.
However, China alone accounted for 27% of system sales this quarter, although the Dutch government is still imposing export restrictions that are not anticipated to expire anytime soon.
Furthermore, ASML’s comprehensive 2025 strategy, which necessitates a 15% revenue increase, remains unchanged. The company’s gross margin in the second quarter was 53.7%, and its order book remains substantial enough to sustain its factories for the remainder of the year.
Nevertheless, the year 2026 is currently uncertain. The geopolitical crossfire has ensnared the most advanced semiconductor tools in the world, but this is not due to ASML’s technological decline—quite the contrary.
The hurry to develop processors that power data centers, power AI, and preserve geopolitical advantage is converging with the unpredictability of trade battles. Despite its capacity to manufacture the instruments that will shape the future of silicon, ASML is unable to imprint a stable global order.
SOURCE: QZ
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