Business
Will Trump’s 2025 Economic Policies Save America from Recession
WASHINGTON, D.C. – With the global economy on shaky ground, President Donald J. Trump’s second-term economic plan reads less like a standard policy outline and more like a bold bet on American strength. The Federal Reserve now expects US growth of just 1 percent in the second half of 2025, down from the 3.5 percent average during the Biden years.
In that setting, Mr. Trump’s mix of broad tariffs, permanent tax cuts, and strict immigration rules is praised by conservatives as the key to avoiding a deep recession. But as markets swing, and consumer confidence falls to its weakest level since the 2022 inflation surge, the big unknown remains: is this a recovery in the making, or a risky roll of the dice?
Trump Tariffs at Center Stage
Mr. Trump’s main economic tool is a flat 10 percent tariff on all imports, rising to 20 percent on rival nations such as China. The move helped trigger an 8 percent drop in the S&P 500 in April, followed by a rebound as talk of carve-outs and exemptions spread.
Supporters point to a recent Federal Reserve Bank study that looks at 150 years of US and European data. They say it shows that higher tariffs tend to cool demand, and that a 4 percent increase in tariffs can cut inflation by about 2 percentage points in the short run while lifting unemployment by only 1 percentage point.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund chief, argues the new tariff plan is not a blunt barrier but a flexible ceiling that Washington can adjust in talks. He claims it has already pushed companies to commit about $4 trillion in US-based projects, as large tech and energy firms plan new plants and reshored production.
Skeptics see a very different picture. Goldman Sachs economists, who now put recession odds at 35 percent, describe the policy as a “wrecking ball” for global supply chains. Their models suggest the economy could be 1.3 percent smaller by 2028 if the tariff structure stays in place without major changes.
Conservatives, though, see early results as proof of concept. The One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which made the 2017 tax cuts permanent and trimmed the corporate tax rate to 15 percent, is credited with lifting second-quarter GDP growth to 3.8 percent, above pre-inauguration estimates.
“This isn’t disorder, it’s controlled combustion,” says Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council. He predicts diesel prices will fall below $2 a gallon by mid-2026, helped by restarting the Keystone pipeline and opening drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).
Golden Boom, or a Hard Fall
The Trump team says the plan may not just prevent a slump, but could launch a strong expansion. Forecasts from inside the administration describe a sharp upswing over the next two years.
By the fourth quarter of 2026, Hassett expects unemployment to settle near 4 percent, with consumer spending up 5 percent from a year earlier. He also projects that the trade deficit will shrink by half, to about $600 billion, thanks to what the White House calls “reciprocal” trade deals with the EU and ASEAN.
Some Wall Street optimists go further. Analysts at Fundstrat anticipate a sharp V-shaped rally in stocks, with the Dow climbing past 50,000 as deregulation helps unlock around $1 trillion in delayed corporate capital spending.
The downside risks are just as dramatic. Pantheon Macroeconomics warns that the tariff shock could push the economy toward a “stagflation trap,” where growth slows while prices keep rising. Their research suggests tariffs could raise core goods inflation by about 1.9 percent, while policy uncertainty and stop-start governance, highlighted by the 43-day government shutdown, could cut half a point from fourth-quarter growth.
If trade tensions with Beijing worsen, JPMorgan estimates the chance of a recession could reach 40 percent by next summer, with household incomes stuck near 2024 levels in real terms.
“We’re betting the farm on American grit,” says a Republican aide on Capitol Hill. “If the bet goes bad, we’re talking breadlines by 2027.”
Conservative Push to Tighten Immigration
Among conservatives, no part of Trump’s agenda stirs stronger support than his immigration crackdown, which they frame as a matter of public finances, not race.
Since January, illegal crossings have reportedly dropped 90 percent, with monthly apprehensions down to about 8,000. The administration credits a series of executive orders that declared a border emergency, brought back the “Remain in Mexico” policy, and ended catch-and-release practices. These actions have cut asylum case backlogs by around 40 percent.
The Laken Riley Act, which requires the detention of migrant felons, has led to 1.5 million deportations since Trump returned to office, according to ICE figures. Supporters argue this has freed about $16 billion a year in welfare and emergency Medicaid spending that had supported undocumented households.
Think tanks on the right call this the purest form of America First policy, a barrier against what the Federation for American Immigration Reform estimates as a $182 billion yearly cost to taxpayers from illegal immigration.
“Open borders aren’t compassion, they’re economic sabotage,” says Simon Hankinson, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He credits the tougher stance with lifting wages for native-born workers by about 2.5 percent in border states.
Key figures behind Project 2025, such as Ken Cuccinelli, argue for an even firmer line, including more military help with border patrols and ending so-called “sensitive zones” that limit immigration enforcement in schools, churches, and hospitals. The administration has already moved in this direction, with National Guard troops now stationed along key stretches of the Rio Grande.
Even more moderate Republicans give their backing. A Pew survey shows 88 percent of GOP voters now support expanding the border wall, up from 79 percent in 2019, and 79 percent approve of stepped-up deportations.
Opponents highlight the human toll, pointing to roughly 700,000 people with Temporary Protected Status who could face removal. Conservative lawmakers respond that national control of borders is non-negotiable and argue that weak enforcement quietly worsens the deficit.
Fiscal Fortress or Inviting a Fall?
Economists remain deeply split over the long-term results, but right-leaning voices have grown more supportive as early data comes in.
Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, who has often been cautious about Trump’s policies, agrees that tariffs can slow growth over time. Even so, he says they have created a short-term “sugar high” in domestic investment.
“Lower immigration shrinks the labor pool, yes, but when you match that with tax breaks for new plants and equipment, you can get higher productivity instead of wage cuts,” he argues.
Joseph Brusuelas of RSM US offers a warning of his own. Without quick and broad tariff exemptions for key imports, he says, the first quarter of 2026 could see output contract by about 2.4 percent, based on Atlanta Fed nowcasts.
Yet he also points to early signs of fiscal improvement. “This administration’s volatility is its advantage,” he says. “Firms adjust, spend more at home, and the deficit has already fallen to about $1.7 trillion, compared with fears of $2.5 trillion.”
For die-hard America First supporters, this is a live contest, not a dry policy debate. Traders are watching for changes to H-1B visas to keep some skilled workers coming in, while manufacturers pin their hopes on a new push for nuclear power and heavy industry.
“The fight is fiscal: back the tariffs, build the walls, or watch deficits eat the American dream,” Hassett wrote in a recent CNBC piece.
According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Trump has told advisers he expects “pain,” but not catastrophe. “Recession? Maybe. Depression? Never,” he reportedly said in private.
In his view, economic rescue demands bold moves and a hard stomach for risk. For now, the United States is all-in on that bet.
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Business
CNN Ratings Collapse As Cable Giants Face Extinction
ATLANTA – In early 2026, CNN is dealing with sharp audience drops that point to a deeper shift in how Americans follow the news. The network once led cable TV, helped by nonstop political coverage during Donald Trump’s first presidency.
Since then, however, its audience has shrunk. In 2025, CNN averaged 573,000 total viewers in primetime, down from 1 million in 2017. Total day viewing slipped to 432,000, a 44% decline over the same stretch. In other words, CNN lost more than 40% of its audience from the first Trump term to the second, even while politics stayed intense.
- Primetime viewers fell 45% from 2017 to 2025.
- Total day viewers dropped 44% in that same period.
- Compared with 2015, primetime slid from 711,000 to 573,000.
January 2026 brought a small lift. Primetime rose to 660,000 viewers, up 26% from January 2025. Still, that bounce looks limited next to years of decline.
CNN’s drop also fits a wider pattern. Its left-leaning competitor, now called MS NOW (formerly MSNBC), posted double-digit declines in 2025 as well. Fox News stayed on top, often drawing more than 2 million primetime viewers, although it also saw weakness in key demographics.
What’s happening at CNN is not a one-off. Cable news as a category faces pressure from cord-cutting, streaming growth, and changing habits. In 2025, many cable channels lost large chunks of their audiences, and some smaller networks fell by as much as 78%. During parts of 2025, streaming also moved ahead of broadcast and cable combined, which signals a broad move away from scheduled TV.
Why Cable News Viewers Keep Leaving
Several trends explain why cable news keeps losing ground:
- Faster cord-cutting: Fewer homes keep a traditional cable package, while streaming takes more viewing time.
- Older audiences: Cable news viewers trend older. Median ages for major networks sit around 67 to 70, while younger people skip linear TV.
- More places to get news: People now use social apps, YouTube, and on-demand services, so fewer people tune in at a set time.
- Bias concerns and burnout: After major elections, many viewers feel tired of politics and distrust big outlets, so they look elsewhere.
Pew Research data from 2025 shows watching is still the top choice for news (44%). At the same time, digital options keep growing, and podcasts play a bigger role. Listening holds at 19% preference, yet it carries more weight with younger audiences.
The Podcast Surge and What It Offers That Cable Can’t
Podcasts now compete directly with cable news, especially for deeper, host-led conversations. In 2025, news podcasts hit new highs. About 27.3% of monthly podcast listeners tuned into news shows, up from earlier years. Around 15% of Americans got news from podcasts each week, which puts it near print newspapers by some measures.
Several reasons explain the rise:
- Easy to fit into daily life: People can listen while driving, exercising, or doing chores, unlike a scheduled TV block.
- More time for context: Longer episodes support detailed talk, which appeals to listeners tired of quick TV panels.
- Stronger host connection: Personalities like Joe Rogan and many independent creators build loyalty through a more casual style.
- Younger listeners: The typical podcast listener is often around 34 to 47, far younger than cable news audiences that skew 67 and up.
- Niche trust: Many listeners say independent voices feel more honest, and on the right, podcasts often outscore traditional sources on trust.
In the US, news podcasts like PBD Podcast now mix legacy reporting and analysis (for example, The Daily from The New York Times) with opinion-driven shows. Many also post videos on YouTube and clips on TikTok, which helps them reach new audiences and blur the line between audio and video. By mid-2025, Republicans made up a larger share of news podcast audiences (39%), which matches the growing demand for point-of-view content.
Independent media adds even more momentum. Substack newsletters, YouTube channels, and creator-run outlets keep pulling attention away from cable. Many people want reporting that feels less filtered, along with deeper dives and a sense of community. Surveys show 82% of independent media users treat it as their main news source and trust it for more detailed coverage.
What Comes Next for Cable New:,Change or Continued Decline
As 2026 unfolds, cable news sits in a tough spot. Forecasts suggest streaming will pass 50% of TV use, while FAST channels and creator-led programming keep rising. As a result, cable networks may merge, shift harder into online products, or shut down. Some experts expect multiple closures in 2026 as subscribers keep dropping.
CNN and other networks have already started adjusting. They are building out streaming, launching podcasts, and pushing a multi-platform strategy. CNN also pointed to strong digital reach in 2025, with millions of monthly users across apps and subscriptions. Even so, major hurdles remain, including rebuilding trust, competing with free content, and staying relevant as social feeds and AI-generated material flood the market.
On-demand news keeps gaining because it fits how people live. Podcasts and independent outlets offer portability, clear voices, and stronger engagement, while linear cable struggles to match that experience. As audiences spread out across platforms, traditional networks need to adapt quickly or keep shrinking.
This change also reflects a simple expectation: people want control over when news arrives, how it sounds, and who delivers it. CNN’s ratings drop shows the stakes, and cable news now has to connect old habits with new ones before more of the audience moves on for good.
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Business
Trump Tariff Revenue Jumps 300% as Supreme Court Fight Nears
Trump Tariff Windfall: Customs Revenue Jumps About 300% as Supreme Court Fight Nears
Tariff revenue hits $124 billion so far this fiscal year, with January collections at $30.4 billion, fueling talk of debt payoff and direct checks
WASHINGTON, D.C. – President Donald Trump’s tariff push is driving a major spike in federal customs revenue. New Treasury Department figures show customs duties are up about 300 percent since Trump returned to office. In January, the US brought in about $30.4 billion from customs duties. As a result, the fiscal year-to-date total sits near $124 billion, up roughly 304 percent from the same period a year earlier.
The administration is using those numbers to back a central claim: tariffs can raise money without raising US income taxes. Trump has also said the new tariff revenue can help chip away at the $38 trillion national debt. At the same time, he argues that the duties shield US industries from unfair competition abroad.
The jump in revenue follows a set of broad tariff moves that began in early 2025. First, the White House rolled out across-the-board duties on many imports starting in April 2025. Next came “reciprocal” tariffs aimed at certain countries. The administration tied these actions to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing national emergencies tied to issues such as fentanyl trafficking and trade imbalances.
Collections started rising fast. Monthly totals moved from about $9.6 billion in March 2025 to more than $23.9 billion later that year. That run-up set the stage for the big fiscal 2026 numbers now being reported.
Looking back, fiscal 2025 (which ended September 30, 2025) produced $215.2 billion in customs duties, more than twice the prior year. So far, fiscal 2026 is moving even faster. In addition, the early deficit picture looks better. The federal budget deficit fell 17 percent in the first four months of fiscal 2026 (or 21 percent after calendar adjustments), as revenue grew more quickly than spending.
A core part of Trump’s economic pitch
Trump has cast the rising customs revenue as proof that his trade strategy works. In posts and public remarks, he has said other countries end up paying because tariffs reduce their export edge, while the US collects the money. Supporters inside and outside the administration point to the monthly totals as evidence that the policy is producing real cash for the Treasury.
That revenue talk has also revived a big idea: direct $2,000 payments to Americans. Trump has described the plan as a “tariff dividend” aimed at lower- and middle-income households. He has said the money would come from the “hundreds of billions” flowing in through customs duties. In comments from November 2025, he said he was taking the idea seriously and still supported it. Even so, no bill or detailed framework has been released. Because of that, the proposal has drawn both attention and doubts, including concerns about how to target payments fairly.
Many economists and trade researchers argue that tariffs act like a tax on US importers, and those costs often show up in higher prices. Research cited from the New York Federal Reserve suggests US firms and households cover most of the bill, as much as 90 percent in some estimates.
Some analyses put the added cost at about $1,000 per household in 2025. Projections rise to around $1,300 in 2026 if the policy stays the same. Over time, tariffs could bring in large gross revenue, but critics say the net gain shrinks once you factor in slower growth, job losses in exposed industries, and possible retaliation from trading partners.
Supreme Court decision could change everything.
The revenue boom is unfolding while the tariff program faces heavy legal pressure. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether Trump can use IEEPA to impose broad tariffs without Congress. The court heard oral arguments in November 2025 in cases that challenge the scope of that authority, since Congress normally controls tariff policy.
Lower courts have already pushed back. The US Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against key parts of the tariff structure, saying the measures go beyond what the statute allows.
Meanwhile, importers have filed hundreds of refund suits. If the Supreme Court sides with challengers, the federal government could owe tens of billions, or even more, in returned duties. That outcome would cut into the revenue totals and could force the White House to rely on other trade laws.
For now, administration officials say they expect to win. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called an adverse ruling “very unlikely.” Still, the wait has stretched longer than many expected. That has added stress for importers dealing with compliance demands and growing bond requirements. US Customs data also shows record importer bond shortfalls, totaling nearly $3.6 billion in fiscal 2025, which highlights the strain tied to the policy.
What it means for trade and the economy
Trump’s tariff strategy has shifted global trade talks. Negotiations continue as some countries push for lower rates while the US keeps pressure on issues like intellectual property theft and currency practices. Supporters say tariffs are helping bring investment home, open factories, and boost jobs in protected sectors.
On the other hand, critics warn about higher prices, supply chain headaches, and risks to industries that depend on exports, including agriculture and manufacturing, if retaliation grows.
As fiscal 2026 continues, tariff revenue will stay at the center of budget and trade arguments. The big unknown is whether the surge holds up, or whether a Supreme Court ruling forces a reset. For now, the numbers are clear: customs duties are pouring in at a pace that is reshaping the budget debate and fueling bold ideas on debt reduction and direct payments.
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Tech Titans Flee California to Low-Tax Havens Like Florida
California’s Wealth Drain: Billionaires Leave as Taxes Climb and Debt Grows
Tech Leaders Head to Low-Tax States Like Florida
Mark Zuckerberg’s $150M+ Miami Mansion Buy Points to a Bigger Shift Among Silicon Valley’s Rich
LOS ANGELES – A high-profile real estate deal is adding fuel to the talk of money leaving California. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly bought a waterfront estate on Miami’s Indian Creek Island, the guarded enclave often called the “Billionaire Bunker,” for an estimated $150 million to $200 million.
Sources familiar with the deal, widely reported in February 2026, say the purchase puts him near neighbors like Jeff Bezos and Ivanka Trump. People close to the situation also suggest it’s more than a second home, with Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, planning to settle in by April. For many observers, it looks like another major tech name is choosing to leave California as new tax proposals stir concern.
Zuckerberg’s reported move fits into a bigger story, a capital exodus tied to California’s high tax burden and a new ballot push that critics say could speed up departures. The proposal is called the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act. It would place a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents over $1 billion, paid over five years (about 1% per year).
Supporters, including groups such as the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, say it could raise tens of billions for health care as federal support shrinks. Opponents, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, warn it could damage a tax system that already depends heavily on a small group of top earners.
California Facing Ongoing Outmigration
California already has one of the toughest tax setups in the country. The top state income tax rate is 13.3%, the highest in the U.S. In many cases, the state doesn’t separate regular income and capital gains. When federal taxes are added, the bill can be steep. The state also relies heavily on the top 1% of earners, who pay roughly half of all personal income tax revenue.
With the proposed wealth tax set to apply to people who are residents as of January 1, 2026, some wealthy residents appear to be moving early. Entrepreneurs like Chamath Palihapitiya and David Friedberg have cited estimates that $1 trillion to $2.5 trillion in assets left the state in late 2025 and early 2026. Private polling has also suggested that 80% to 90% of those affected have already moved or plan to if the measure moves forward.
This isn’t only about billionaires. California has faced ongoing outmigration tied to taxes, regulations, homelessness, and the high cost of living. U.S. Census data shows net domestic losses of more than one million residents from 2020 to 2024.
Higher earners, especially those making over $200,000, tend to be the most likely to leave. Many head to states with no state income tax, including Florida, Texas, and Nevada. The effects can stack up fast: less income tax revenue, weaker sales and property tax collections, fewer big donations, and risks to jobs linked to businesses and investors that relocate.
California Lawmakers Target the Wealthy
California’s budget problems sit in the middle of this debate. The state moved from a record $97.5 billion surplus in 2022 to recurring deficits. Current projections point to an $18 billion gap that could reach $35 billion by 2028.
A major issue is how dependent the state is on income and capital gains taxes from top earners, which rise and fall with markets and can shrink when people move. Critics blame years of Democratic-led spending, pointing to expanded programs, health care growth, and environmental rules they say raised long-term costs without steady revenue to match.
Many Democratic lawmakers and progressive groups have responded to the budget strain by pushing for higher taxes on the rich. If the billionaire tax qualifies for the November 2026 ballot, it would need nearly 875,000 signatures. Backers say it would apply to about 200 ultra-wealthy residents with a combined net worth above $2 trillion.
Supporters frame it as a fairness issue, arguing billionaires can face lower effective rates because much of their wealth is tied to unrealized gains. The push has sparked strong pushback, with economists warning it could trigger even more departures. Recent examples often mentioned include Google co-founder Larry Page (reported to have bought Miami property), PayPal’s Peter Thiel, and other major names who have set up residency outside California.
Even if the wealth tax never passes, the threat of it can change behavior. Florida, with no state income tax, offers a clear financial draw. For celebrities and executives, it also offers privacy and security. Indian Creek, with gates, its own police, and marine patrols, is part of the appeal for people who want distance from public attention.
Wave of Billionaire Relocations
The bigger concern for California is what happens if this pattern continues. When investors and founders leave, Silicon Valley’s funding networks and job creation can weaken over time. People who want tighter budgets argue that constant tax hikes on the rich backfire, pushing out the very people the state relies on, then shifting pressure onto everyone else through higher costs and fewer services.
Supporters of progressive tax policy say top earners benefit greatly from California’s system and should pay more, and they often argue that claims of mass migration are overstated based on past research showing limited millionaire movement.
Still, the trend line is hard to ignore. From Oracle’s headquarters move years ago to the latest wave of billionaire relocations, California is competing with states that make it easier to keep more of your income. In a country where people and money can move quickly, that competition matters.
If Zuckerberg is settling into Florida life, the signal is clear. With high taxes and growing debt fears, even leaders tied to California’s tech boom are choosing to leave. California now faces a tough choice: adjust its approach, or keep losing the wealth that has long helped fund the state.
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